The Fool said:

> Doesn't the drake equation show that there could be anywhere from
> thousands to millions of intelligent civilizations out there (in our
> galaxy alone, let alone the cluster or the universe)?

The Drake equation relies on multiplying together many, many terms whose
values are entirely unknown. It's pretty easy to get almost any value
you'd like by selecting values for these terms.

I would argue that the experimental evidence puts severe limits on the
number of advanced civilisations out there. There is no sign of
intelligent life elsewhere in the solar system: no artifacts at the
Lagrange points, no structures on the Moon, no evidence of
industrialisation of the asteroid belt. There is no evidence of
industrial development of nearby protoplanetary discs. Various SETI
searches have failed to find the radio noise of other civilisations.
People have looked though the IRAS data looking for stars with the
thermal spectra of Dyson spheres and found none. There is no sign of
stellar engineering projects taking place in this or any other observed
galaxy.

It seems to me that either technological civilisations are inherently
very rare or something out there is actively suppressing them. The fact
that no Inhibitors have got us yet leads me to think that scenario is
unlikely. Therefore, the best explanation is that we are alone. All the
"explanations" given by Jeroen just don't work if technological
civilisations are common, because they would be very unlikely to be
homogeneous in attitude and it would be almost impossible to assimilate
them all into a metacivilisation, and it just takes one that doesn't
play by the rules for our "quarantine" to be over.

Rich
GCU Repeating Myself

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