----- Original Message -----
From: "Alberto Monteiro" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 5:31 PM
Subject: Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US


>
> Dan Minette wrote:
> >
> >The sources I read suggested that immigration from Albania has been
going
> >on for 400+ years.  What was the fraction in the early 20th century?
> >
> You are the statistics guy. Get your sources :-P

OK at
http://www.decani.yunet.com/histkim.html

we have

The Great 1690 Migration was a important turning point in the history of
the Serbs. In Kosovo and Metohia alone, towns and some villages were
abandoned to the last inhabitant....The century after the Great Migration
saw a fresh exodus of the Serbs from Kosovo and Metohia, and a growing
influence of ethnic Albanians on political circumstances.

And

Ethnic circumstances in Kosovo and Metohia in the early 19th century can be
reconstructed on the basis of data obtained from the books written by
foreign travel writers and ethnographers who journeyed across European
Turkey. Joseph Miller's studies show that in late 1830s, 56,200 Christians
and 80,150 Muslims lived in Metohia; 11,740 of the Muslims were Islamized
Serbs, and 2,700 of the Christians were Catholic Albanians. However, clear
picture of the ethnic structure during this period cannot be obtained until
one takes into account the fact that from 1815 to 1837 some 320 families,
numbering ten to 30 members each, fled Kosovo and Metohia ahead of ethnic
Albanian violence. According to Hilferding's figures, Pec numbered 4,000
Muslim and 800 Christian families, Pristina numbered 1,200 Muslim, 900
Orthodox and 100 Catholic families with a population of 12,000

and...

Despite the persecution and the steady outflow of people. Serbs still
accounted for almost half the population in Kosovo and Metohia in 1912.


So, I'd argue that in the Kosovo region, there was an Albanian majority a
long way back.


>
> >>
> >> My bet is that the next country to be Kosovoed is Germany - a
> >> fine irony for their n--- past.
> >
> >If you extrapolate the fraction of German population that is Turkish
over
> >the last 30 years, how long will it take for Turks to become 10% of the
> >population?
> >
> See above :-)))))

Well, my understanding is that the Turkish population as a % of the
population has been pretty steady over the last 20 years.  I know that from
'98 to '00, the Turkish population actually fell.  So, the extrapolated
increase would probably not arrive at 10% in the 21st century.

Dan M.


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