--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Gautam Mukunda <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > http://nationaljournal.com/rauch.htm > > A good article in the National Journal on the > Administration's strategy in North Korea. It had a > lot of stuff I hadn't thought of. I don't know if I'm > convinced that they're taking the right approach, but > it does convince me that they have thought through > what they're trying to do, and aren't just flailing > randomly.
Great article. It definitely has me convinced, and indeed, plays a little bit into my own reasoning. I've been meaning to post my thoughts on this topic here for a while now, since I have bludgeoned the Administration's critics on this List with the $66,000 question - given that empirically known result of diplomacy is the DPRK taking our bribes and building nuclear weapons anyways, what is *your* policy for the DPRK? - but without ever posting my own thoughts more than a general agreement with the Adminstration on this topic. As I see it, the DPRK is making noses right now precisely because they see our military almost inextricably entangled in the Middle East. Thus, for the US right now, the DPRK probably views the US military option as being off the table in the short-to-mid-term, or at least very close to the edge of the table. Now, as impossible as it might seem for you or I to envision the US attacking the DPRK head- on, I think that there is little question that the DPRK sees this a real and serious threat - hence all the talk about a Non-Agression- Pact. Anyhow, the DPRK is no doubt frustrated right now that the US is forcing the DPRK to choose between receiving our bribes and building nuclear weapons, and fundamentally refusing to let the DPRK have it both ways - as they have succeeded in doing for the past decade. Thus, their antics right now with the US pre-occupied elsewhere amoutn to something akin to a toddler's temper-tantrum. They are a way for the DPRK to attract attention to themselves, with little risk of, ahem, "serious consequences." Indeed, they may calculate that the US will be so desparate to avoid war while it focuses on Iraq, that the US just might be intimidated into a "face-saving" solution of resuming its bribes to the DPRK in exchange for unverifiable weapons inpsections, in other words, allowing the DPRK to resume having their nukes and eating their bribes too. The US, IMHO, is wisely resisting this temptation, and like a good parent, is letting the DPRK "scream out" its temper-tantrum, until it realizes that such behaviour will get it nowhere. The key to all of this has been something I have watched for a while now - that the DPRK, despite its threats, has not actually started reprocessing. This article provided the background I hadn't realized - that even the rest of the world has told the DPRK that reprocessing is a red line that it cannot cross. Admittedly, this has not all played out yet, but for the time being, this seems precisely the right approach. Now we see if the DPRK is actually silly enough to call the world's bluff and resume reprocessing.... I'm betting that even they are not willing to roll those kind of dice. JDG - Score Another One For Bush, Maru. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
