On 1 Apr 2003 at 22:58, John D. Giorgis wrote: > Dr. Brin: > > Glad to see you are doing well and thriving..... though it is > disappointing that you aren't supporting the liberation of perhaps one > of the world's most oppressed peoples - the Iraqis. > > At 05:20 PM 4/1/2003 -0800 d.brin wrote: > >What the rightwing never, ever does is ask itself the sci fi > >question. What will humanity/Earth be like in the future? DO you > >honestly expect to see a loose 'international' system of sovereign > >states, with America striding about as the sole superpower, > >indefinitely deciding for itself what's to be done for everybody's > >own good? How about a billion years from now? > > To try and answer your question, I see the US as being the preeminent > superpower for at least the next 100 years.
*raises an eyebrow* I give you less than 20 to crash and burn. In spectacular fashion. I'll bet cash. > I do not see a serious supranational infrastructure encompassing the > US and Europe, let alone including Russia, China, or much of Africa in > that timeframe either. Russia...well. China, I think it's a question of WHEN it retakes Taiwan. Not IF. > >The idea is absurd even 50 or 40 years from now. At the rate China > >is growing, we should be ready for trouble in 15. > > I don;t know what economic projections you are using, but even > assuming that China's official growth figures are accurate and > sustainable over the course of the next century, China will not be > able to rival the US for a good 100 years or so. There's one problem. It doesn't assume China turns expansionist. And China's internal problems seem to me all to be pointing to that being a neat soloution for China. Pretty tough on everyone ELSE, but with Taiwan, well... > Also, how does releasing millions of barrells of cheap Iraqi oil onto > the market benefit Bush's golf buddies who own very marginal oilfields > (producing expensive oil() in Texas and off the Gulf Coast? I agree on the oil . 100%. It's France and Russia who want the Iraqi oil...sigh. Andy Dawn Falcon _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
