At 06:45 AM 4/2/2003 +0100 Andrew Crystall wrote:
>> To try and answer your question, I see the US as being the preeminent
>> superpower for at least the next 100 years.
>
>*raises an eyebrow*
>
>I give you less than 20 to crash and burn. In spectacular fashion.
>I'll bet cash.
I've got $100 2003 US dollars (adjusted using the US CPI) for payment on
4/1/2003 if the US is no longer the world's superpower in that date for you
Andrew.
Nick - can we put this in your prediction's registry?
>> >The idea is absurd even 50 or 40 years from now. At the rate China
>> >is growing, we should be ready for trouble in 15.
>>
>> I don;t know what economic projections you are using, but even
>> assuming that China's official growth figures are accurate and
>> sustainable over the course of the next century, China will not be
>> able to rival the US for a good 100 years or so.
>
>There's one problem. It doesn't assume China turns expansionist. And
>China's internal problems seem to me all to be pointing to that being
>a neat soloution for China. Pretty tough on everyone ELSE, but with
>Taiwan, well...
China turning expansionist should have no effect. China will definitely
not be able to conquer the Republic of Korea nor Japan nor India nor Taiwan
in the next 20 years. China simply has no amphibious capabilities to
speak of, and the US is strongly committed to the defense of those nations.
They might be able to handle Mongolia or some of the Central Asia
countries, but those areas are so resource poor as to have little effect in
the 20-year time frame. The same is true for Southeast Asia. The
greatest worry would be a Chinese-Russian conflict, where China could grab
a sizable slice of Siberia. Even so China is just too big and way too
poor to truly emerge from poverty in only 20 years. If you want to
remind me in a couple weeks, I can run some numers on US and Chinese GDP
per head and how long it would take China to get within the US's ballpark
at various possible growth rates.
JDG
_______________________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03
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