I think the original implication was that Pax Americana will be over, and the US will not the dominant superpower it is today. Either the US will have regressed significantly in world standing, or there will be a formation of a new force stronger than the US, or some combination of both.Now, what specific terms and criteria will be used to determine if the US has "crashed and burned" by that time?
1. Nuclear war / Waorld War III 2. Complete economic colapse 3. The fall into dictatorship 4. The creation of concentration camps 5. Global Pandemic 6. Singularity 7. Alien invasion
To my mind, the most likely scenario is that terrorism will run out of control until the US of 2023 is unrecognisable as the US we know today, but all Andrew needs to win his bet is for the US to be no longer able/willing to project its power globally (as per Rome in 500AD, Great Britain in 1945 etc).
Cheers Russell C.
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