On Sun, Jul 27, 2003 at 04:51:55AM -0500, Ronn!Blankenship wrote: > So what jobs will still be performed by humans in a robotic nation?
I think a more useful question is, what will still be scarce in a robot economy? Well, I think the article probably overestimates the progression of computer power, absent any revolutionary breakthroughs. Most technologies follow a stylized S-curve of rapid growth, steady growth, then slow growth, and the article assumes the steady growth will continue for several more decades, which I doubt. My best guess is that things will stagnate in the next decade until a revolutionary technology is perfected (my wild guesses would be "3D microprocessors" and/or quantum computing becoming practical for very high computational densities) Anyway, my point is that computational power may still be relatively scarce compared to what the article assumes. So, for example, creative thinking, which requires a great deal of knowledge and processing power, will be highly valued (more so if there is less incentive for people to do it). Energy will still be scarce, unless controlled fusion is perfected. Land will surely still be scarce (it will probably be a long time before we colonize other Earth like planets or are as comfortable living in space habitats as on the Earth). Maybe this combination will make land with lots of sunlight for solar energy power generation plants much more valuable (the robots will need a lot of power). I think the article asks a good question, which is how the economy can be modified to deal with these sorts of things. One solution was outlined in _Beggars in Spain_ by Nancy Kress, with the "donkeys" and the "livers". For me, that is something of a nightmare scenario, but it does seem to be a likely outcome. But I'd much rather see most children acquiring an education despite the fact that an education is not REQUIRED in order to live. But how to motivate people to learn? The only answer I can come up with is to continue to balance cooperation with competition. Don't give the "livers" everything they want. Provide a minimum safety net for free (nutritious but not desirable food, minimalist housing and clothing, basic medical care, etc.) and set up an economy where people must still compete if they want more than the minimum. Medium of exchange would be based on whatever is still scarce (land, energy, creative thinking, etc.) -- "Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> http://www.erikreuter.net/ _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
