Couldn't sleep and this part of the thread drew me back.

Let me correct some facts.

Here are the correct totals from the CCIS2002Middleeast.pdf I happen
to have. Getting current year or last year estimates is too expensive
and not really needed.  Armies normally change little in 2-3 years. In
this case these numbers are from a report that was available free.

------------------Moderate/Mod-High Quality
Mig-29......25
SU-25.........7
SU-24D....30
F-14..........25 
F-4E..........66
------------------ Low Quality
F-5E/F......60
F-7M.........24

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from the IISS, Military
Balance, Periscope, JCSS, Middle East Military Balance, Jane's
Sentinel,
and Jane's Defense Weekly. and material provided by US experts.

Iran now has an army of around 450,000 men â including roughly 125,000
Revolutionary Guards, and
an inventory of some 1,600 main battle tanks, 1,500 other armored
vehicles, and 3,200 major artillery
weapons. It also has over 280 combat aircraft [gd - of all types] with
potential operational status.

Iran has been able to make major improvements in its ability to
threaten maritime traffic through the
Gulf, and to conduct unconventional warfare.

Iran has also begun to acquire modern Soviet combat aircraft and has
significant numbers of the export
version of the T-72 [tank]and BMP [Armored Personal Carriers].
.
Iran has not, however, been able to offset the obsolescence and wear
of its overall inventory of armor,
ships, and aircraft.

Iran has not been able to modernize key aspects of its military
capabilities such as airborne sensors and
C4I/BM, electronic warfare, land-based air defense integration,
beyond-visual-range air-to-air combat,
night warfare capabilities, stand-off attack capability, armored
sensors and fire control systems,
artillery mobility and battle management, combat ship systems integration, etc.

Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K Street N.W.
Washington, DC 20006
(202) 775-3270

This report is no longer available at the url below but others are.
http://www.csis.org/military/

My analysis - Cordesman is being generous in the flight status of the
three American models of planes. Pilot quality, based on hours of
training and yearly flight time available from IISS publications, is
poor. It is unclear if they have an elite flight squadron that might
try to go head-to-head with better American fighter jets.  They have
sufficient numbers of planes to attempt a a very limited suicidal
surprise first strike. That should not be successful given the number
of AWACs and naval and ground radar installations as well as the
superior fighters the US has in the area . Even if successful at
knocking out an airfield or a carrier, an extremely generous
assumption, this would gain them no strategic benefit considering the
size of the American military forces not in the immediate area.

The US land based air craft order of battle as of June 1st is given at
the link below: The important land components for air defense are the
F-15s and F-16s.  At the present time there is one carrier, the George
Washington, with F-14s and F-18s given in the current naval order of
battle.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_orbat_air.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_orbat_sea.htm

Gary Denton

#1 on google for Easter Lemming "Tools for Civilization"
as well as 
#1 on google for Easter Lemming Air Combat

Where you find:

HoustonChronicle.com - Bartimus: Bush playing pre-emptive politics
with Iraq situation

"War is failure. We haven't yet worked hard enough to declare that all
possible diplomatic, moral or economic solutions have failed.

"Powerful, combat-tested generals agree that the United States has not
exhausted all its options to head off war with Iraq. Gen. John M.
Shalikashvili, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Gen.
Wesley K. Clark, former NATO military commander; and Gen. Joseph P.
Hoar, former chief of the U.S. Central Command, think a unilateral
U.S. attack on Hussein could undermine America's long-term diplomatic
and economic interests around the globe.

"When hawks become doves, we should pay attention."

Gary Denton Permalink on *10/2/2002* 


On Wed, 16 Jun 2004 23:08:28 -0500, Julia Thompson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
><snip> 
> Source?  I'm wondering how current it is, among other things.
> 
>        Julia
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