At 10:35 PM 8/28/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote: >> In terms of potential next superpowers, the only real possibilities I >could >> see are: >> >> 1) China >> 2) India >> 3) United States of Europe > >We talked about that. I'd rank it > >1) India >2) China >3) An Arab superpower >4) USE. > >We switched 1 and 2 from yours basically due to population trends. China >should be trending downward in 50 years, with India still increasing. The >chances of China having a major upheaval increase, since their best >ecconomic center is at odds with its goverment. The Tawain problem could >also hit China. India is in a much better position to benefit from global >trade, since they speak the world language of commerce: English.
In terms of China running into potential instability vis-a-vis a Civil War or Taiwan, the risks of this strike me as on balance only marginally greater than the potential risks of India running into instability vis-a-vis a Civil War of their own, or else a Pakistan-Kashmir crisis. As far as population, I am not sure that India's population will prove to be much of an advantage in the 50-150 year time frame I am envisioning here. Certainly I think that it would play less of a role than, say, China's substantial head >An Arab superpower can happen. If a reasonable worst case scenero occurs, >we'll have a government run by AQ or AQ fellow travelers in SA. With ~400 >million a day in gross oil revenues, a lot can happen with that money. >They should be able to buy the ability to have nuclear weapons...from >France if from nowhere else. With the same reasonable worst case scenario I think the biggest reason why this is unlikely is that they didn't succeed in doing this already - back when oil was an even larger part of the global economy, and when they had comparatively even more of it. Indeed, a superpower emerging in the Middle East would require a Middle East government larger than the UAE actually concerning themselves with development of their countries - rather than personal self-enrichment. Even if the current kleptocrats were replaced by an actively hostile regime, this regime would face two fundamental truths: 1) Saudi Arabia is a woefully under-developed country 2) Oil is essentially worthless unless you are selling it Essentially, I don't see oil as being a sufficient foundation for becoming a "superpower." Certainly, the relative power of a given Arab State could increase from what it is now, but again, nothing approaching that of Greece, Rome, Mongolia, Spain, France, Great Britain, or the USA. Ultimately, it seems to me that approaching that level of power requires a certain domestic level of population and natural resources to reach a global pinnacle in production - and I don't think that the Arabian peninsula meets that standard - even if you were to throw in Egypt. JDG _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
