----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan Minette" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 10:35 PM Subject: Re: The Next Superpower Re: AIDs in Africa
> > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "JDG" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 9:26 PM > Subject: The Next Superpower Re: AIDs in Africa > > > > At 09:03 PM 8/28/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote: > > >One interesting thing on the way home...we were speculating on who the > next > > >superpower might be. She said that the US has done plenty of things > wrong, > > >but she shudders to think of the other candidates taking over as the > > >biggest power. > > > > First, I would say that the US has sole claim on the title "superpower" > > essentially locked up for the next 50 years. I would also say that the > US > > has a very strong inside track for the next 50-100 years after that. > > You are probably right, in that timeframe, but there are always risks in > predicting in that timeframe. Enough can happen in 50 years so that > essentially locked up may be an overstatement. > > > In terms of potential next superpowers, the only real possibilities I > could > > see are: > > > > 1) China > > 2) India > > 3) United States of Europe > > We talked about that. I'd rank it > > 1) India > 2) China > 3) An Arab superpower > 4) USE. > > We switched 1 and 2 from yours basically due to population trends. China > should be trending downward in 50 years, with India still increasing. The > chances of China having a major upheaval increase, since their best > ecconomic center is at odds with its goverment. The Tawain problem could > also hit China. India is in a much better position to benefit from global > trade, since they speak the world language of commerce: English. > > An Arab superpower can happen. If a reasonable worst case scenero occurs, > we'll have a government run by AQ or AQ fellow travelers in SA. With ~400 > million a day in gross oil revenues, a lot can happen with that money. > They should be able to buy the ability to have nuclear weapons...from > France if from nowhere else. With the same reasonable worst case scenario we could alliances with Islamic republics in Iraq and Iran, putting pressure on the UAE. One could have a political alliance wielding 20 millions BPD of oil output during an oil shortfall. I'd guess that, in a hot summer or cold winter, Europe would do what was necessary to get oil. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
