----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Doug Pensinger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Monday, October 25, 2004 2:11 AM
Subject: Re: Br!n: On the Saudis



> But, in fact, isn't it just possible that with the right amount of
> political pressure, brought to bear by a coalition of concerned
> governments, that we could have forced greater political reforms on
Riyadh
> than the window dressings that have been altered?

The world is full of possibilities Doug, but this is a long shot.
Political pressure comes from leverage.  Who would we get involved in a
coalition to push on Saudi, and what would be the leverage.

It would certainly not be Europe.  Europe bends over backwards to not
antagonize the Arabs.  What are they going to use as leverage, threatening
an economic boycott of Saudi oil?  If there was a second oil embargo right
now, who would be hurt worse: the Saudi government who could wrap
themselves in Arab solidarity...and gain at least a few months of breathing
room, or the Western world who would find themselves very short of fuel?

It would not be Japan, for close to the same reasons.  The only country
with any leverage at all is the US...and that leverage is the defense it
supplies to the Saudi government. But, that leverage is minimal.

I think there is little argument on this list that the Saudi government,
before 9-11, played tribute to AQ as part of an agreement to leave them
alone.  This isn't so much support as submitting to blackmail.

In short, I'm frustrated with an argument that "political pressure" might
work without some detailed discussion of how such pressure can be obtained.
Stern notes from all NATO members is really not much pressure.  There has
to be some significant negative consequences to back up the pressure.
Otherwise it's not pressure.

Dan M.


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