O.k., time for my final prediction.....
The baseline is, of course, the 2000 map. From this, I am basing my
prediction based on State polls, long-term trends, and the reading of the
tea leaves from the actions of the two campaigns.
Pacific - Nobody has visited Oregon since the last debate ended, and the
polls there have fairly consistently shown Kerry to be ahead. With Ralph
Nader not a factor, Kerry should take the "Left Coast".
Mountain West/Great Plains - Despite the attention slavished on NV and CO,
the public polls have just never really shown anything happening here to
me. As for the closest State in 200, New Mexico, I've heard that Kerry
pulled his advertising in the final week of the campaign, which should
portend a Mountain West/Great Plains sweep for Bush.
South - Despite Bill Clinton's visit to AR, the campaigns have not gone "on
the air" here in a while. John Edwards does not seem to have been enough
to push VA or NC into "competitive" status. With the possible exception
of FL, it looks like "Solid South" for Bush. Likewise, the Kerry
campaign hasn't been "on the air" in WV since September, which portends a
Bush victory.
Northeast - There remains an outside shot that NJ could produce the
mother-of-all surprises tomorrow, but the public polls have only ever
showed the terrorism issue here making it close - never putting Bush in the
lead. Kerry will win by 5-10. With the possible exception of NH and
ME's 2nd Congressional district, the rest of the Northeast goes for Kerry.
Pennsyvlania and Michigan - For the last week, the polls have shown Bush
steadily gaining ground here - even to the point of Gallup putting Bush
ahead in PA while down in OH and FL. Suffice to say, that Kerry needs to
win two out of "The Big Three" of PA, OH, and FL to keep it close. Bush
can survive with only one of those three. Michigan, on the other hand,
has the opportunity to send all conventional wisdom - like the "2 of the
Big Three Rule" I just repeated - completely out the window. Both
campaigns have been visiting MI in the final days, suggesting that
something is really going on here. Yet, with only 17 EV's, Michigan isn't
really big enough to include in the "Big States" discussion, yet isn't in
the "Little Three" (more on that later) discussion either. In other
words, a Bush upset here would be chaos on the order of NJ. I'm going to
going CW on this and predict that the Unions bring MI and PA home for Kerry.
Ohio - This State has a long Republican tradition, and Republicans control
almost every statewide office. Yet, Ohio has been "ground zero" for the
Democrats' turnout machine this election cycle, and the shaky economy here
is not favorable to the President. I hate to say it, but OH looks like a
Kerry pickup to me.
Florida - Unlike OH, the economy is doing very well here. The polls I
respect the most in FL seem to show a narrow Bush lead. There seems to be
some evidence that the Republicans have outhustled the Democrats in this
State with outreach to Hispanics, and of course Bush also has Jeb Bush's
political machine to help turn out the vote. I predict Bush gets this one
narrowly, but without a recount.
Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota - The so-called "Little Three." If Kerry gets
two of the "Big Three", he also needs at least two of the "Little Three" -
and perhaps a little more, depending on the scenario. IA and WI were two
of the five "recount" States last time around. There has been some
indication from the Kerry camp that they are doing badly in rural IA this
time around, and Bush has opened a steady lead in the polls there. Over
the summer, it actually looked like WI was going to be the most likely
pickup for Bush. Renewed attention from the Kerry camp has narrowed it to
what looks like a nearly perfect dead heat. I predict that WI will be the
closest state this time around (sadly, they don't seem to share New
Mexico's law of breaking a tie via a poker game) - so I'll be a homer and
say that it ends up narrowly for Bush. The last one is Minnesota, a
State that seems to be steadily treanding Republican.... I'm going to go
out on a limb and make MN my "Upset Special" and give it to Bush for a
clean sweep of the Little Three.
New Hampshire and Hawai'i - If WI is not the closest state, it looks like
NH may well be - as both candidates visted this weekend. Meanwhile, with
Dick Cheney headed out to Hawai'i this weekend, it looks like the Aloha
State - which historically has had a strong pro-incumbent bias - is
increadibly "in play." Maybe all those military voters and Catholic
Filipinos have closed the gap. I honestly have no idea on these two, so I
am going to split the difference and say one goes to each - HI to Bush and
NH to Kerry.
Final Totals: Bush 290, with 50.1% of the vote. Kerry 248 with 48.4% of
the vote.
If Kerry does win, I believe with about 90% confidence that it will be one
of the following scenarios:
1) FL and OH
2) FL, WI, and MN
3) OH, WI, MN, NH, and HI
I also predict that we will know the name of the next President by 2:00am,
so hopefully at least we will all get a good night's sleep.
JDG
_______________________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03
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