At 03:10 PM 5/6/2005 -0700, Nick wrote: >On Thu, 05 May 2005 23:58:34 -0400, JDG wrote > >> By all the usual statistical tests, this model is >> very robust. And yet, every four years that same model is >> spectacularly wrong. And so, after each Presidential election the >> model is tweaked to account for the latest observation - all to no >> avail. Every four years the model's future predictions are >> invariably wrong. > >Then it is an excellent predictor, isn't it? > >If it were not, then it would be right half the time. > >;-)
Cute. Just in case I wasn't clear, though, the model predicts the two-party "popular vote" percentage, not the binary outcome. JDG _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
