----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert J. Chassell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Friday, September 23, 2005 5:57 PM Subject: Re: Evacuation
> Dave Land asked, > > Does anyone know why it took so long for officials to start > contraflowing those roads? It must have driven people crazy to > sit for hours in that sweltering heat, looking across the barrier > at all those empty lanes. > > Good question. It was done in Louisiana before Hurricane Katrina. > Contraflow doubles evacuation rates. > > Dan Minette said, > > Traffic was moving as slow as 0.4 mph ... > > which suggests that access control might have increased evacuation > rates by more than a factor of two. But, IMHO, it would have taken National Guardsmen shooting at people getting on the freeways. With all due respect, you don't seem to picture the situation here. For hundreds of miles, all that is keeping people from getting on the freeway from any spot they want is a social covenent....backed up by the occasional ticket. When the entrance or exit ramp is just a couple minutes away, there's no problem. When traffic is backed up, people get on, get off just about anywhere by driving on the grass. How many troops would it take to stop that on 500 miles of freeway? > All this depends on whether the increase in roadway more than or less > than compensates. If the extra roadway provides more than enough > room, it compensates; if too many people want to evacuate, it fails. > Traffic engineers can tell us the numbers a road can carry. All that is true. The problem is that some folks delayed, and others went when they didn't really need to. There were three stages of mandatory evacuation, about 10 hours apart, IIRC...and the roads would have handled that traffic OK. I think it's those folks who decided to get out of town, but were not in those areas that added to the problem. > Besides putting cops at every entry, another way to control the > numbers who try to get on a big road is to specify when people who > live in different parts of the city should attempt to leave. As I said, it was done. > > Obviously, none of this is easy. That is why exercises are useful > even though no plan works in the event itself. Folks here have done these exercises. There certainly will be a lot of lessons learned here. One of which is to expect a higher level of compliance post-Katrina. Another would be to advise people out of the worst zones to let those who must leave go first, and be ready to shelter in place if need be. I think this is the largest two day evacuation of an area in human history. I've heard numbers of 1.5 million people evacuating. Given that, I think having everyone who wanted out safe 12 hours before the storm deserves a passing grade. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
