Dan wrote:
While conservation policies would have some effect, one can see a much
better correlation between changes in prices and changes in oil usage
than in governmental policies and the use of oil.
In the eight years following Carter's "moral equivelent of war", during a
period of economic expansion, oil demand fell by about 17% and imports
droped from 46 to 30%. Two thirds of the oil we consume is on
transportation, but thanks to the SUV loophole, the average efficiency of
U.S. vehicles is very poor.
Oil use would be lower in the US now if we decided to, say, impose a
tax on gas similar to the one in the UK,
A new energy tax is a great idea because it would encourage conservation.
but the increase in the US use is not the main factor in the increase
in the world's use now. The Asian economic boom is >
responsible, since they are at a point where economic growth has a high
energy dependence.
Oh come on, Dan. The _difference_ in the situation might be Asian
economic growth, but the U.S. still consumes a lopsided proportion of the
energy resources available. If there were ten people in a room drinking
beer and one of them was drinking three times as much as any of the others
and another person entered the room and started drinking, who's most
responsible for the keg going dry? The guy that just walked in?
I'll agree that if the Arabs were as poor as Sub-Sahara Africa, the
chances of us worrying about Islamic terrorists would be >
minimal. But, I think conservation measures would have mostly cut oil
exploration outside of the Middle East, instead of reducing > the
importance of that region.
Indeed, if you look at that time frame, AQ was not drying up and blowing
away....they were strengthening. If you want a turning point, the
embargo of 1973 is probably the best candidate, although the die was
pretty well
cast by then.
AQ was formed in the '90s due to our presence in their homeland which was
in turn was a direct result of our thirst for their oil. Or does anyone
believe we would have come to the aid of Equatorial Guinea if they had
been invaded by Cameroon?
--
Doug
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