> -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On > Behalf Of Doug Pensinger > Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2006 10:17 PM > To: Killer Bs Discussion > Subject: Re: Great Sam Harris Interview > > Dan wrote: > > > While conservation policies would have some effect, one can see a much > > better correlation between changes in prices and changes in oil usage > > than in governmental policies and the use of oil. > > In the eight years following Carter's "moral equivelent of war", during a > period of economic expansion,
Very slow expansion. > oil demand fell by about 17% and imports > dropped from 46 to 30%. Two thirds of the oil we consume is on > transportation, but thanks to the SUV loophole, the average efficiency of > U.S. vehicles is very poor. Obtaining the oil production data from http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_crdsnd_adc_mbbl_m.htm and the crude oil prices from http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Tabl e.asp We get the following table: production US imports total price GDP US Population 1970 9.6 1.3 11.0 $17.19 3.6 203 1971 9.5 1.7 11.1 $17.50 3.7 208 1972 9.4 2.2 11.7 $18.76 3.9 210 1973 9.2 3.2 12.5 $20.88 4.1 212 1974 8.8 3.5 12.3 $37.26 4.1 214 1975 8.4 4.1 12.5 $44.63 4.1 216 1976 8.1 5.3 13.4 $45.31 4.3 218 1977 8.2 6.6 14.9 $46.74 4.5 220 1978 8.7 6.4 15.1 $45.13 4.8 223 1979 8.6 6.5 15.1 $67.42 4.9 225 1980 8.6 5.3 13.9 $89.48 4.9 227 1981 8.6 4.4 13.0 $77.49 5.0 230 1982 8.6 3.5 12.1 $64.96 4.9 233 1983 8.7 3.3 12.0 $57.48 5.1 235 1984 8.9 3.4 12.3 $54.48 5.5 237 1985 9.0 3.2 12.2 $49.25 5.7 239 1986 8.7 4.2 12.9 $25.92 5.9 242 1987 8.3 4.7 13.0 $30.74 6.1 244 1988 8.1 5.1 13.2 $24.78 6.4 246 1989 7.6 5.8 13.5 $29.09 6.6 247 1990 7.4 5.9 13.2 $34.83 6.7 249 1991 7.4 5.8 13.2 $29.19 6.7 253 1992 7.2 6.1 13.3 $27.00 6.9 255 1993 6.8 6.8 13.6 $22.83 7.1 258 1994 6.7 7.1 13.7 $20.79 7.3 261 1995 6.6 7.2 13.8 $21.64 7.5 263 1996 6.5 7.5 14.0 $25.66 7.8 265 1997 6.5 8.2 14.7 $22.86 8.2 268 1998 6.3 8.7 15.0 $14.38 8.5 270 1999 5.9 8.7 14.6 $19.52 8.9 276 2000 5.8 9.1 14.9 $31.29 9.2 281 2001 5.8 9.3 15.1 $25.57 278 2002 5.7 9.1 14.9 $24.94 2003 5.7 9.7 15.3 $29.63 2004 5.4 10.1 15.5 $39.21 2005 5.1 10.1 15.2 $50.38 287 My apologies if things don't line up perfectly. Let's see...Carter made the speech in April, 1977 and consumption rose slightly through '79...even though prices rose to $67/barrel in '79 (inflation adjusted dollars). Crude oil prices rose to $89/barrel in '80 and consumption went through the floor. US production, which dropped from '70 until '76 responded to the increase in price by rising roughly 10%. The peak of exploration and drilling was the week I hired on in the oil patch....the first week of '82. It fell somewhat until '83-'84, but then rose slightly in '86. The wheels came off in '86. You can see US production falling after that, and imports increasing. I see good correlations with prices....it's not surprising that a 5x increase in prices would cut consumption. But, I don't see a direct result of Carter's speech. I see the normal lag between the end of exploration and the drop in production in the US...and I see a fairly quick response to high prices. I'm not sure why we need more than market forces to explain what happened. One other interesting point....even though prices almost quadrupled between 1970 and 1979, the ratio of oil consumption to GDP (inflation adjusted) remained virtually constant....it actually increased very slightly. This was after both Ford and Carter pushed conservation. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
