--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Doug Pensinger <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > I guess that I don't understand why it is invalid to also assume that > > warming will increase ocean temperatures, and so increase the number of > > storms. > > I'm just referencing what I've read, John, Here's an article > > http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181 > > and a relevant quote: > > "Hurricane forecast models (the same ones that were used to predict > Katrina's path) indicate a tendency for more intense (but not overall more > frequent) hurricanes when they are run for climate change scenarios (Fig. > 1)."
Thanks for providing a source. I've looked some more in to this though, and I don't find anything approaching a scientific consensus. >From last week's issue of _The Economist_: "Bill Gray, a professor of meteorology at Colorado State University, who runs a hurricane-forecasting centre and is the man America always turns to when a big hurricane threatens, doubts the methods of the climatologists. 'I'm a great believer in computer models,' he told the 27th Conference on Tropical Meteorology earlier this year. 'I am-out to ten or 12 days. But when you get to the climate scale, you get into a can of worms..." "Robert Muir-Wood , head of research at Risk Management Solutions, a firm that create catastrophe models for use in the insurance industry, says that 'if you ask climatologists how much of the extra activity is the result of climate change, the range of opinion is between 10% and 60%." [A paper] "by Peter Webster, Judith Curry, and colleagues, said the data supported the idea that there was a long-term increase in the number of category four and five (intense) hurricanes..." Finally, the article presents a graph showing that the annual frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes has been higher since in every year since the early 1990's than in any since at least 1930.... JDG _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
