Doug wrote: > AQ wants to prolong > the violence because they are aware that Americans have a > limited amount of patience; that by prolonging the violence > they will force us to leave.
I'll disagree with you here. I do not think that AQ wants the US to withdraw. Not right now at any rate. A couple of captured AQ documents clearly indicate that AQ is hoping that the US stays in Iraq for a long time to come. The American presence in Iraq is accomplishing what OBL had hoped the Afghanistan war would do - act as a motivator and radicalise the Muslim youth, and provide a target for the new recruits to practice on. Some analysts and intelligence institutions have already pointed toward a trend wherein jihadis get their 'training' in Iraq and then move to Afghanistan. Also, it is a drain on your economy and OBL is on record about wanting that. He has said as much in a letter about Iraq. Another cache of letters, caught when Zwahiri was killed, showed that AQ is also worried that it doesn't have enough representation in Iraq [estimates about AQ involvement put them at about 5-10% of the Iraqi insurgents/whatever the current term might be]. So if the US withdraws, AQ is not sure that they have enough of a toe-hold to stay on in Iraq. None of this means, of course, that they wouldn't crow to high heaven and proclaim victory the minute a departure is announced. Ritu _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
