Ritu wrote: > I'll disagree with you here. I do not think that AQ wants the US to > withdraw. Not right now at any rate. A couple of captured AQ documents > clearly indicate that AQ is hoping that the US stays in Iraq for a long > time to come. The American presence in Iraq is accomplishing what OBL > had hoped the Afghanistan war would do - act as a motivator and > radicalise the Muslim youth, and provide a target for the new recruits > to practice on. Some analysts and intelligence institutions have already > pointed toward a trend wherein jihadis get their 'training' in Iraq and > then move to Afghanistan. > > Also, it is a drain on your economy and OBL is on record about wanting > that. He has said as much in a letter about Iraq. Another cache of > letters, caught when Zwahiri was killed, showed that AQ is also worried > that it doesn't have enough representation in Iraq [estimates about AQ > involvement put them at about 5-10% of the Iraqi insurgents/whatever the > current term might be]. So if the US withdraws, AQ is not sure that they > have enough of a toe-hold to stay on in Iraq. > > None of this means, of course, that they wouldn't crow to high heaven > and proclaim victory the minute a departure is announced.
I'll agree with the above with the caveat that anyone that knows the U.S. at all knows that the public has little patience for failure. The machinations of the Bush administration which, while it is abysmal at nation building, is rather proficient at deception and manipulation of the public (a la Rove), have prolonged the acceptance of the conflict somewhat. Now that public opinion has turned sharply against the war, it's only a matter of time before we leave. There is one other reason AQ doesn't want us to leave; they're Sunnis and aren't particularly interested in another Shi'a state in the region. -- Doug _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
