William T Goodall <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

> http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,,1993006,00.html
>
> "So much space, so little time: why aliens haven't found us yet
>
>
> Ian Sample, science correspondent
> Thursday January 18, 2007
> The Guardian
>
> It ranks among the most enduring mysteries of the cosmos. Physicists  
> call it the Fermi paradox after the Italian Nobel laureate Enrico  
> Fermi, who, in 1950, pointed out the glaring conflict between  
> predictions that life was elsewhere in the universe - and the  
> conspicuous lack of aliens who have come to visit.
>
> Now a Danish researcher believes he may have solved the paradox.  
> Extra-terrestrials have yet to find us because they haven't had  
> enough time to look.
>
> Using a computer simulation of our own galaxy, the Milky Way, Rasmus  
> Bjork, a physicist at the Niels Bohr institute in Copenhagen,  
> proposed that a single civilisation might build eight intergalactic  
> probes and launch them on missions to search for life. Once on their  
> way each probe would send out eight more mini-probes, which would  
> head for the nearest stars and look for habitable planets.
....
>
> -- 
> William T Goodall

This seems way too pessimistic, or I'm missing something. If there are
only 8^2 probes (each one builds 8 more, and the making stops there),
that might make sense, but if each probe can make another 8 - which
the article doesn't seem to clearly specify either way - then it
doesn't take too many generations before the limit is something more
reasonable like how long it takes to cross the galaxy: at ~100,000
light-years in diameter, and travelling at .10 c, one would expect to
see visitors within one or 2 million years of the first batch of
replicators sent out.

--Gwern
-- 
Inquiring minds want to know.
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