> As for Bangledesh and the like -- the fear is not of a multi-decade
> rise in sea level, but of a typhoon or hurricane surge that is higher
> than those in the past. The increase in height need not be much, just
> enough to cause survivors to leave the coast rather than stay.
That's true...but the evidence supporting global warming causing stronger
hurricanes is far weaker than that supporting global warming. It's mixed at
the moment, and very open to interpretation. A large number of good
scientists fall on both sides of this debate.
> Past observations have shown that when hurricanes pass over warm
> core ocean eddies and are located in atmospheric conditions
> favorable for strengthening, they will often strengthen ...
> Surface waters of at least 26 [degrees] C are necessary for
> hurricane intensification, but do not alone lead to hurricane
> development ...
Yes...but heat differential and wind sheer are also critical factors....and
models indicate that heat differential should stay fairly constant and that
shear will rise with temperatures....which inhibits the formation of large
hurricanes.
>If the glaciers melt and less
> rain is held in place, more water flows during the rainy season and
> less during the sunny season.
Changes in glacier melting patterns, and changes in rainfall patterns are
problematic....with the latter likely to be the greatest source of
migration/impact on human lives. From what I've read, the models differ on
just how this will play out, but the odds on things staying close to the
same are very slim in all models. After changes in rainfall, changes in
vegetation growth patterns due to changes in temperatures will probably be
the greatest impact. From what we've seen and modelled, the tropics will be
the least affected, winter temperatures will be affected more than summer
temperatures, and night lows will be affected more than daytime highs.
Dan M.
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