Sorry wrong link. Here is the correct one. http://media.longnow.org/seminars/salt-0200408-longman/salt-0200408-longman.mp3 Chris Frandsen On May 20, 2008, at 6:29 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> > > Original Message: > ----------------- > From: Deborah Harrell [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Date: Tue, 20 May 2008 15:32:10 -0700 (PDT) > To: [email protected] > Subject: Restricting, not: culling the species > > > I'm going to reply to two posts in one message here - > (*and* I changed the thread title, but won't call it > hijacking!) ;) > >> "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" wrote: >>> From: Deborah Harrell [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >>> Best-case scenario for population reduction is >>> education and economic empowerment for women, as I >>> think Pat pointed out. > >> I don't really think the fact that the US has a ZPG >> fertility rate of 2.1 >> while Europe and Japan are at 1.5 and 1.22, >> respectively is the result of >> Japanese women being the most liberated of the three >> developed countries/ecconomic unions. > >> Mmm, I didn't use 'liberated;' since the American >> sense of the word has connotations of 'having sex with >> whomever I please, whenever I please' I don't think it >> applies to forced marriages or child brides (although >> I admit I was shocked upon seeing a program about >> post-pubescent Japanese schoolgirls who have sex with >> older men for money/luxury goods). The programs I >> referred to (Heifer International and various >> micro-loan systems - there's one in Bangladesh that >> has apparently worked like gangbusters) are about >> reducing ignorance and poverty. Nearly all of the >> enrollees/beneficiaries of these are women with >> dependent children; health, nutritional and >> environmental education are emphasized in HI, while >> micro-loans are more about economic >> improvement/independence (although one program >> involves setting up mini health clinics as a way for a >> woman to not only support her family financially, but >> improves access to health care for local villagers). >> Several studies, as I think others had mentioned, show >> that educating girls/women leads to reduced birthrates. > > I agree that ecconomic development and the education of women have > been > correlated with lowering birth rates in underdeveloped countries. > It makes > sense that areas where women cannont have ecconomic self-sufficiency > have > fertility rates far above ZPG. I was comparing the US and Japan to > show > where that breaks down. I was also thinking of liberated in the > ecconomic > sense, not sharing the stereotypical male understanding of a good > sex life. > > Japanese culture is complex, but I'd argue that the requirement of > many/most Japanese women to chose a career or a husband and family > contributes a great deal to their very low fertility rate. > >> Indeed, the EU and Japan are going to be in >> very interesting positions in 20-50 years, with a >> population that is highly >> skewed towards the aged and is shrinking. The EU's >> population can be >> expected to drop almost 30% every generation while >> Japan's will drop over >> 40%. It is clear that, unless these >> countries/regions show explosive >> increases in their productivity, their GDP will >> become stagnent and their >> relative influence in the world will fall. > >> Immigration will probably make up much of that. > > Huh? You know that that racial purity is still very important in > Japan, > right? The immigration rate is so low that the CIA factbook simply > says > it's not available. There are 100k "guest workers" allowed from poorer > countries and Americans and Europeans are allowed in low numbers, but > immigration with a path to citizenship is not on the horizon, even > though > Japan has crossed the threshold of deaths>births. > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan > > With a couple of exceptions European countries will accept > immigrants from > other white countries. The UK does accept Commonwealth immigrants, > and has > a non-white population nearing 8%. France has a bit less than that, > and > Germany has third generation Turkish guest workers at the 2.5% level. > > But, every indication is that Europe is about at it's limit in > accepting > people who aren't ethnic Europeans. The key thing to watch is > Turkey. My > prediction is that there will always be roadblocks to Turks having the > freedom to work in, say, Italy, that Poles do. > > Continental Europe is at it's limit concerning immigration of > non-Europeans...because of the importance of keeping the ethnic > identity of > Europe as it is. This contrasts with the US, which is clearly on > its way > to having non-Hispanic whites as a minority. > >> But I believe that, as our Western lifestyle is not >> currently sustainable, we need to reduce not merely >> our numbers, but our 'human footprint.' > > But, the US has significantly cut its consumption of most raw > materials and > has been flat (on average) in per capita CO2 output over the last 17 > years > or so. The big increase comes from countries like China pulling > themselves > out of abject poverty. I really don't think it practical to expect > everyone to accept poverty to avert global warming. The costs of > global > warming are much smaller than that cure. > > Dan M. > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- > mail2web LIVE – Free email based on Microsoft® Exchange technology - > http://link.mail2web.com/LIVE > > > _______________________________________________ > http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
