> > no one is saying that EVERY mess is the idiot's fault, but his policies > have had a catastophic effect, and not just the price of oil. although the > initial invasion of iraq did greatly reduce the production of oil or some > time. i don't think iraq has recovered to pre-war production levels, > despite the claims that the surge succeeded and al qaeda is on the run.
If not, the difference is in the fraction of a percent level of world oil production (a couple of hundred thousand of barrels/day). AQ overplayed its hand in Iraq and Sunni movement turned against it. Maliki has outmaneuvered Sadr....at least for the moment. Reporters who've been stationed in Iraq for the duration, said things were close to a civil war a year ago now say things are much better. > al > qaeda is resurging in afghanistan and pakistan, and has been recruiting > around the world. you can't deny that terrorism is on the rise as a > result of bush's policies, even though he is finally starting to be less > dogmatic and more pragmatic in the waning days of his presidency. Well, the death tool in Iraq is way down from last year, by just about everyone's measure. There have been a few big blasts, but nothing compared to the spiral of violence we saw last year in Iraq. Just about everyone is surprised at how much the violence fell. In many ways, it is due to AQ indiscriminately killing Muslims, as their second-in-command in Iraq warned...as well as the show killings. Bush's blunder's in Iraq were staggering, as well as his blunders in the US. Still, between good luck and Petraus's skill, we are not on the edge of chaos and civil war in Iraq. Things are better now for people in Iraq than before we invaded. Remember, had to intervene militarily for over a decade to mitigate the slaughter by Hussein before the war. Even so, he killed and tortured tens of thousands of his own citizens every year. There is now a chance that a government that is moderate by Arab standards will be Cheney, Rumsfeld and Bush share responsibility for a multitude of deaths that could have been prevented by having the US folks who are now running things doing it from the beginning. (actually, if that were true, Rumsfeld wouldn't have been SecDef). But, if we didn't invade (as I had advocated here 5.5 years ago in Brin-L's debates), we'd be better off, but things would still be very problematic. For example, the oil crisis would not be much different. It is not due to a minute drop in Iraq's output. It is due to the big rise in demand. Even as the price rose, demand rose with it. But, it was non-US demand. From the 2000 to the first quarter of 2008, the US increased its demand by 0.9%; while the world increased its demand by 11%. The biggest drop in supply came from Venezuela, where Chavez's insistence that his lackeys (not the union oil workers who ran things before) run things, because their oil fields are in the process of being ruined. If you look at the latest figures from: www.eia.doe.gov you will find that the US oil demand is falling. We are buying far fewer trucks and SUVs (which will have a long term impact) and mileage driven is falling too. But, a drop in world consumption is not noted. I'd expect it to continue to increase as long as oil doesn't skyrocket from the present 80 Euros/barrel....even if the dollar continues to fall. If oil falls back to last year's levels, then I'd expect consumption increases like we've seen over the past 5 years to continue. So, the fundamentals of the oil crisis are independent of Bush: world demand is rising fast, due to the rapid growth of emerging economies. Non-fundamentals, such as today's fear based increase due to Iran being further along the path of obtaining a nuclear bomb do produce spikes...and enough fact based fear can produce a longer term trend, but, over multi-year periods....its the law of supply and the law of demand that prevail. We lost control of supply...which started the last oil crisis. Now, we've lost control of demand. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
