----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan M" <[email protected]> To: "'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion'" <[email protected]> Sent: Thursday, January 08, 2009 4:59 PM Subject: RE: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?
> > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On >> Behalf Of xponentrob >> Sent: Wednesday, January 07, 2009 7:21 PM >> To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion >> Subject: Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years? >> >> If one wants to make direct comparisons of a type of batteries >> capabilities, >> one has to go no farther than a hardware store or Lowes or Home Depot. >> I've been using cordless drills for a couple of decades. They were once >> using Ni-Cad batteries, until the Nimh batteries swallowed the market. >> The >> Ni-Cad and Nimh battery packs were pretty much the same size and >> performed >> about the same, only Nimh had a slight edge in most categories. In the >> last 2 years Li-ion batteries have begun to take over the market. >> The battery packs are smaller and lighter, but deliver more power >> and torque and do it for longer with a shorter recharge time. >> In short, Li-ion are starting to dominate the market and it is a market >> that has requirements that has similarities to the requirements in Auto >> applications. > > I agree with your methodology, but wish to add one thing: cost. The added > cost for modest energy densities is not a big factor, but at $4.27 per Wh, > it means a lot if one needs a lot of watt hours. In the case of power > tools, the use isn't as much as one thinks, > > My memory is that the Tesla uses these batteries, and its price tag has a > lot to do with how expensive they are. I think we'd need a factor of 10 > reduction in price/Wh before they are commercially feasible for Joe and > Joan > commuter. But, I would not necessarily rule that out; because the > evidence > for research on the techniques indicates that there may be some room for > improvements both in storage density and price per battery. The Tesla is not the best example one could use. I think the Heuliez Will is a better example of an electric vehicle that is just about there. The price should be around 27-34K (when it hits market) and the car can do 0 - 60 in around 10 seconds with a top speed of 87MPH and has a range of248 miles. It is not as sexy as the Tesla, but it is much more of a reply to peoples needs than the Tesla and costs should go down as more are manufactured. The Chevy Volt looks to be similarly placed, though it is a series hybrid. > > The other factor is that we will either need to switch to nuclear power > for > virtually all of our electricity or find a very efficient high volume > energy > storage system to match with wind. Right now, power grids can count on > only > 5% or so of the rated capacity of wind farms. Pairing them with natural > gas > plants makes this reasonable, but then we are burning fossil fuels to get > the electricity. That's slightly better for the environment than > gasoline, > but far worse than high tech biofuels that might come on line in 5-10 > years. > > So, in the short term, I'd argue for building nuclear plants, finding ways > to make batteries denser and cheaper, and biofuels from non-food sources > which produce aviation fuel far more efficiently than ethanol is produced, > developing high efficiency massive energy storage, and a raise in the gas > tax. > > But, you've heard that before. :-) > True, and I am in agreement with you most of the time on this subject. But I must caution against accidental hyperbole. The Tesla is a high end sports car. Using it as an example with regards to commuting is a bit over the top. Understandable, since it has about the highest profile (among potential consumers) of any BEV, but the car was designed to show possibilities and capabilities,not to be a mainstream or even a commuter vehicle. xponent Compacts Maru rob _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
