----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan M" <[email protected]> To: "'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion'" <[email protected]> Sent: Saturday, January 10, 2009 1:24 PM Subject: RE: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?
> > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On >> Behalf Of xponentrob >> Sent: Saturday, January 10, 2009 11:50 AM >> To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion >> Subject: Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years? >> > >> Sheesh Dan! You are exaggerating your argument a bit don't you think? >> Looking around, I can't find many cars that are even close to 11K MSRP >> excepting a few Kias and the Toyota Yaris Chevy Aveo, and Nissan Versa; >> and none of them are getting the kind of gas mileage you specify. Indeed, >> only the Yaris breaks 30 MPG. (Granted, cars are selling at an average of >> 14.9% below MSRP these days) > > OK, I was doing milage from memory. But, my bigger Escort gets 30, so I > thought these smaller cars got a bit more. > > But, let's just take 30. At $1.50/gal, that's 5 cents/mile. Lets say > these > cars are kept for 150k, which is on the high side...that's 7.5k for gas. > The break even point, assuming CDs pay zero, with the MSRP discount, is > close to $6.00/gal. And, that's comparing with a smaller car. > Heh! I'm aware of the math involved. Frex: http://www.gunaxin.com/chevy-volt-bmw-mini-tesla-roadster/4055 Worth reading. The problem with breaking down the math is that it pretty well preaches to the already-decided. People are going to buy what they want to buy unless they just can't afford to, and that is likely the only math that counts. That pretty much means that some people will take a premium hit if they believe that there will be other indirect benefits. Then too, it must be repeated that these are initial estimates, and that the prices will inevitably lower. It is just a question of how much, and that kind of market forcasting is near impossible at the moment for anyone. > > >> >> Vaporware? > > The Tesla can be bought. The others are still being configured and are > not > available for sale. I've always been skeptical about what the price and > performance will be. The engineering rule is that projects take twice as > long and cost twice as much. Cutting this factor down, because they are > in > prototype stage, a conservative estimate is that costs are 30% higher than > discussed. They talked about 5 people, they talked about 240 miles, but > never said that 5 people could be taken 240 miles. My guess is that the 5 > person seating is tight, and only for the 80 mile version of the > car....otherwise they'd explicitly say otherwise (If I were the project > manager I'd be all over the tech. writer's back to make sure that the > capacity was stated explicitly if it existed...if it wasn't there, I'd be > happy with what they wrote). > > Second, the 240 miles would probably be under ideal conditions. Exactly the same as with gasoline vehicles, only no one ever questions this. For some reason I find that humorous. > > I'm not opposed to electric cars, I just try to use the rules of thumb > I've > learned from engineering on all comers...those I'm rooting for as well as > against. > > Realistically, after a recovery, long term gasoline prices should average > in > the $2.50 range. I know that if we could get $80 oil (in 2008 dollars) > promised for the next 10 years, everyone in the oil patch would be very > very > happy. Electric cars will have to compete against that. So, the math has > to > work out that way....the lower payments on gas will have to balance the > higher payments on the car note for the average Joe and Joan. You also have to factor in the lower costs of using electricity as an energy source. Depending on where one lives, gas is 3 - 5 times as costly as the equivilent in watts. What is the value of a vehicle you may have zero maintainance with in the first 5 years? What will be the differences in warranties? There are a lot of unanswered questions that effect value. > >> I understand the argument you are trying to make. The key is battery >> development. And there are economic issues that could miscarry the entire >> trend............... if normal and simple economics were to hold sway. >> But >> I don't think those kinds of economic arguments will hold in the long >> run. >> There is political will running in from several directions that will >> create a sort of ad hoc alliance to promote hybrids and BEVs. > > I believe that. I wouldn't doubt that people will be able to pitch for > over > 100 billion in government money for projects. That is happening now. > The question is whether it > will have more of a real impact that the 30 billion/year we have thrown at > ethanol. Eventually, I think the answer is Yes. I don't think there is any question that there is a need to get away from carbon based fuels and from millions of mobile units burning them at various rates of inefficiency. IMO ethanol is not really a helpful long term solution. > >> It appears that concern over "Peak Oil" is growing. >> There are National Security issues due to the large amount of imported >> oil >> from less than friendly cultures. People are generally disgusted >> with importing oil from less than friendly cultures. > > Yes, but where is the support for a gas tax that will further limit > consumption. I'll know when folks are serious about it when they agree to > a > $3.00/gal tax matched with a tax rebate program that renders a net neutral > disincentive to use gasoline. This will happen when > > 1) It just froze over > 2) Pigs fly > 3) Fill in the blank. Ha Ha! True, so true! But I don't recall anyone agreeing to previous gas taxes, unless one wants to posit tacit approval. I expect such taxes are coming, but phased in over a number of years. This too has the scent of inevitability whether BEVs and Hybrids succeed or fail to win in the market. > > >> Environmental concerns over Greenhouse Gas emissions. >> Environmental concerns over pollution emissions. / Medical concerns over >> pollution emissions. >> People worry about future "Gas Price Shocks" such as we had last summer. >> Large auto manufacturers see startups like Tesla as a "Threat". > > Well, that all sounds good, but the numbers don't seem to match. > According > to CNN, SUV and Trucks are now outselling cars again > > http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/22/autos/trucks_back/ Watch C-Span much lately? > > I think that folks are very interested in other people sacrificing for the > environment and to stop those nasty folks in the Mid-East from getting > more > money. But, as long as gasoline prices stay under $3.00 (which I expect > for the next 5 years....the June peak was a bubble), not much will be done > to change buying habits. As I said earlier, "People will buy what they want to buy". I'm working with a guy, I give him a carpool home everyday so we have plenty of time to chat, and this guy has a great desire to own a 1500 or an F-250 truck. He admits that he doesn't need or have a use for one, he just wants it. And I expect he will buy one. He will drive it to work in the morning and it will sit in a parking lot all day. He will drive it home in the evening where it will sit in the driveway. He will take it out on Saturdays and spend a couple of hours cleaning his precioussssssssss. I know lots of people just like him. I'm related to quite a few. I, because of this, do not tend to be swayed by practicality arguments because I don't see all that many people who make decisions based on practicality. But I did see many people who's heads got twisted 180 degrees by gas prices last summer. Most still plan to buy that big monster truck, but I get the feeling they all recognise it as a chance at a last hurrah. > > > >> It seems to me that you are looking at where we are with an eye >>to the next few years. I'm looking at where the trends seem to be >>taking us with and eye to the next decade, maybe 2. That difference in >>range can give a lot of variance to what the trends will tell you. >>Amirite? > > I'm just trying to get the best data I can, discounting claims of future > breakthroughs because I've seen a zillion of them. I don't see today's > electric cars having much to do with long term solutions. Long term > solutions might very well include electric cars, but I think the > government > should not be in the business of subsidizing electric cars. Already happening to a small degree. And there is serious lobbying for more. Query: Are you impling that a breakthrough is not a breakthrough until it makes market? I ask because it would help clarify what you mean by "future breakthroughs". > Rather, it > should be in the business of funding research in the litany of areas that > might work and then let companies use that research to fund concerns that > make economic sense. I suppose we differ greatly here. IMO the government should also be in the business of putting an eventual end to ICE for personal transportation. It should be quite obvious by now that there is no fuel beyond hydrogen that ICE can use cleanly, and hydrogen requires a "future breakthrough" to even be a viable choice. Ice would be an inferior choice when compared to fuel cells in any case. > > Personally, I'd bet a beer that bioengineered fuels, that have >10x the > efficiency of ethanol production will have a significant market share in > 10 > years (say 10% of jet fuel), but electric cars will not be a significant > player (>5% of cars sold worldwide in 2019) in that time. But, I have no > problem in placing chips on battery development, because the payoff from a > given winner should be substantial....we just don't know which bet will > pay > off. > I agree with you on the bioengineered fuels. But I would hold my money on the electric car bet until you do some research on the state of electrics worldwide. This discussion about electrics is not happening just in the US and Europe, but in China and India too. If strides are made in the two most populous countries in the world (where so many engineers in the US seem to come from), then game changers become possible. xponent May The Fuel Source Be With You Maru rob _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
