----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan M" <[email protected]> To: "'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion'" <[email protected]> Sent: Thursday, January 08, 2009 9:14 PM Subject: RE: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?
> >> The Tesla is not the best example one could use. I think the Heuliez Will >> is a better example of an electric vehicle that is just about there. The >> price should be around 27-34K (when it hits market) and the car can do 0 >> - 60 in around 10 seconds with a top speed of 87MPH and has a range >> of248 >> miles. > > Yes, but if you read what they write carefully, they never say that they > can > go with long range and carry a full passenger load. If you compare it > with > domestic sub-compact cars, it looks as though its maximum range version > will > carry about the same as a 11k sub-compact car. > >> It >> is not as sexy as the Tesla, but it is much more of a reply to peoples >> needs than the Tesla and costs should go down as more are manufactured. > > And, it's still being designed, according to the manufacturers. Costs go > up > and performance goes down on vaporware cars, in my experience. Yes, it > hit > the auto show, but its not going to be produced for a year or more, and we > all know how that can change things. Basically, who but a rich > environmentalist would buy a car like this at 3x the price of a comparable > gas engine car that gets 40-50 mpg highway? > Sheesh Dan! You are exaggerating your argument a bit don't you think? Looking around, I can't find many cars that are even close to 11K MSRP excepting a few Kias and the Toyota Yaris Chevy Aveo, and Nissan Versa; and none of them are getting the kind of gas mileage you specify. Indeed, only the Yaris breaks 30 MPG. (Granted, cars are selling at an average of 14.9% below MSRP these days) Vaporware? Heck, the car is an example of a design I prefer, and one that looks to be adopted by other manufacturers. As I've mentioned before, all the attention is focused on the high end vehicles, and the manufacturers of such claim they will work their way down the pyramid so that the eventual low end auto buyers will reap the most benefit of cost reductions when they are able to purchase a BEV/HBEV. The big existing manufacturers are starting near the middle of their lines and working "out" from there, starting with hybrids. I like the "Active Wheel" design because the energy is being used as close to the pavement as possible, and not being wasted spinning drive shafts and transmissions. That was the point of using that particular car as an example, plus that a giant like Michelin was working on the design. (Personally, I don't find that particular model/body style to be too interesting. It looks like something out of the 70s.) I understand the argument you are trying to make. The key is battery development. And there are economic issues that could miscarry the entire trend............... if normal and simple economics were to hold sway. But I don't think those kinds of economic arguments will hold in the long run. There is political will running in from several directions that will create a sort of ad hoc alliance to promote hybrids and BEVs. It appears that concern over "Peak Oil" is growing. There are National Security issues due to the large amount of imported oil from less than friendly cultures. People are generally disgusted with importing oil from less than friendly cultures. Environmental concerns over Greenhouse Gas emissions. Environmental concerns over pollution emissions. / Medical concerns over pollution emissions. People worry about future "Gas Price Shocks" such as we had last summer. Large auto manufacturers see startups like Tesla as a "Threat". There are also some "seedling" issues. Potential fuel tax increases that would bring us to par with Europe. The decreased "cost of ownership" potential for electrics. (Up to an order of magnitude fewer moving parts, less need for maintenance[almost none], practically no oil products used except for joint lube etc...) Electricity is cheaper than gas (cost/mile) The possibility that congested and polluted cities could outlaw ICE use in certain districts (London Frex) It seems to me that you are looking at where we are with an eye to the next few years. I'm looking at where the trends seem to be taking us with and eye to the next decade, maybe 2. That difference in range can give a lot of variance to what the trends will tell you. Amirite? xponent Electromotive Forces Maru rob _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
