Which oil patch are you talking about? Offshore drilling is not feasible at the 60-80 dollar range as was proven by the fact that over 66 million acres under lease have not been drilled. I believe the last dry hole offshore in Alaska cost $150 million. My wife's small share of oil rights in west Texas were not opened up until we hit the 80+ range and at least one of those wells was depleted in six months.
Can we agree that the price of oil is being manipulated? The question is why and by who. Perhaps if we look at the results of the price changes it will give us a clue. With the old administration the price of oil could go up significantly and nothing was really done. What would have been the reaction of the new administration in the face of such price increases? We know because Obama and his team has been very clear, a national program to get this country off of oil. Now if you did not want this to happen what would be the quickest thing you could do to kill such a program? Drive the price of oil down? and what do we see? It is almost too obvious to believe, isn't it? But this discussion is an example of how effective it has been. Automobile sales figures have to take into account more than just falling oil prices. Add in the lending difficulties that financial institutions are having with the expiration of tax incentives on some hybrids(Prius) makes any such analysis suspect. I also believe that tremendous incentives that dealers are offering to clear inventory has had the biggest effect. No such incentives are being offered on hybrids to the best of my knowledge. Our culture from the sales people to we, the consumers, in general think in terms of 3 to 5 year vehicle life. Why not take a good deal now on a gas guzzler, knowing that in 3 to 5 years we will get a new vehicle which will be more efficient than today's hybrids? The assumption of course is that things will be better in the near term, gas prices will stay low and that we will be able to afford a new vehicle in 3 to 5 years. Advertising supports this message and companies spend money on advertising because it works especially if you are trying to create short term results. If they ever needed short term results GM, Ford and Chrysler need them now. The sales numbers you are seeing are being driven by those advertising dollars and dealer discounts. Once again we shoot ourselves in the foot over short term results. I bought a Prius and a Ford Hybrid early last year and I am not apologetic nor do I regret it. I think that the next few years will prove the decision to be both financially prudent and environmentally sound. I suspect that you will see the sales numbers for gas guzzlers go down quickly once inventories are drawn down and new incentives are not forthcoming. In addition the car companies know this. The lines for big vehicles are being closed or severely cut back. New more efficient vehicles are being pushed through R&D. Obama's team will not forget their plans nor should they. Our national financial security should not be held hostage to the whim of some hazy entity that can manipulate oil prices. I know I am jumping in here late. I hope that my thoughts add to the discussion. Chris Frandsen On Jan 23, 2009, at 5:04 PM, Dan M wrote: > But, they were buying them in decent numbers when gas was > $2.50-$3.00/gallon. There is nothing that indicates that the long > term > average price of oil (say over a 5 year period) will go above $80.00/ > barrel > within the next decade. The oil patch would love steady oil in the > 60-80 > dollar range, and steady natural gas at about $6.00/thousand cubic > feet. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
