Roger Millin wrote: > Neil suggested: > snipped >> There is one school of thought that says we should just let BW get >> on with it. The waterways will survive in some form or other. With a >> slight downturn in the economy BW will hang themselves...after all >> that is what happens when you mess with virtual privatisation, >> market forces and 200 year old infrastructure...look what happened >> to Railtrack...and Metronet. There is another view (mainly >> subscribed by Steve Haywood) that BW have made powerful enemies in >> the govt and that the poor waterways will have to suffer as old >> scores are settled. > > I cannot see that the first part of this argument is absolutely > correct and for these reasons:- > 1. The boat population is increasing by 6.6% per year (2006/7 > increase over 2005/6 according to BW's annual report). Therefore, as > long as boats are coming onto the system faster than they are being > scrapped there will always be an increasing customer base and > increased revenue, even if the licences stayed fixed (some hope!!). > How many boats are taken off the water and scrapped? Not that many > IMO. > 2. The only way that BW could 'hang themselves' as you put it, is if > there was *such* a downturn due to pricing or system condition that > (to take an extreme example) no new boat orders were made and no new > boats came onto the system. This would have the effect of putting > many boat-builders out of business and just won't happen.
I said that this is a school of thought, I was playing devils advocate. I do not necessarily support this view. There are a hell of a lot of boats being built "on spec" and then put up for sale. You can now get a new build boat at a great discount, at a level which will soon be uneconomic for UK builders. The boatbuilders that are suffereing, (as is normally the case in the UK) are the local ones, not the builders that are elsewhere eg in Poland. I smell a recession coming, the trouble is, this could well actually attract more liveaboards, wanting a cheap home to the waterways. > The only > other way is if there was a massive boaters' civil disobedience > movement and masses of us joined the UBC - unlicensed boaters club - > (currently running at 7.1% according to BW's annual report). The first thing that cash strapped boaters will dispense with is a posh marina berth. BW are well aware of this, this is why they are increasing patrols for overstaying and establshing the highest possible price for traditionally cheaper linear towpath moorings. > Otherwise there doesn't seem to me to be a mechanism whereby BW will > ever get penalised by customers voting with their feet; it's not like > a local shop where you can go elsewhere. I did, the WWW did to a lesser degree and Shirley you have with half your boating ;-) > I just cannot see either of > these two scenarios happening and so, although there may be a slow- > down in sales of new boats, there is never going to be a standstill > and BW will only see an increasing customer base. What they will see is a changing style of customer base. The "bottom" is falling out of the 20yr old + narrowboat sales. > 3. On the second part of your argument Steve may well be correct, but > the only people who are going to pay the price is, yet again, us the > boaters. > Roger You are right there. -- Neil Arlidge - NB Earnest - Shannon Reg 7410 Read about our Irish travels at: http://www.tuesdaynightclub.co.uk/Tour_07/index.html
