The cool spring weather so far really hasn't been that cool relative to normal. In Ithaca the average March temperature was only 1.9 degrees below the long term average. Compared to last year, it was very cold since last March was 12.8 degrees above average!!! How soon we forget that we live in a cold climate!!!
The jet stream patterns are exactly as described below, much farther south, related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is in its negative or cold phase this spring so far. See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml for information on the NAO Last year, the NAO was positive and hence the eastern U.S was warm! The NAO varies rapidly from week to week but can be predominately in one phase for a prolong time period... i.e this past March/early April. The NAO has been dropping recently in the long term mean and some have tied this to the loss of sea ice in the Arctic. My personal professional opinion (not NOAA's!!) is that it is premature to be making this kind of cause and effect. The NAO was predominately in a negative/cold phase in the 1960s and 1970s, returned to a positive/warm phase in the 1980s, peaking in the 1990s and has been falling ever since the 1990s peak. It is cyclical. see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/JFM_season_nao_index.shtml I also remember in the 1990s climate scientists were blaming the positive/warm phase of the NAO on anthropogenic global warming! Now they are blaming the cold phase on global warming? What about the 1960s and 1970s when the NAO was in the cool/negative phase?? Sea ice was much higher. I think the jury is still out on this one. What is interesting is that even with a negative NAO, it was only slightly below normal temperature-wise in March. In the past, a strongly negative NAO usually yielded MUCH colder temperatures, like March 1960 which was 10 degrees below normal with a negative NAO. That might be related to a global warming signal...negative NAO patterns don't yield the kind of cold they used to. As far as woodcocks go, maybe they don't display as much when it is colder and windy so they are not detected as much? Plus, are they as many people out on cold nights? These are just things to consider also... Dave Nicosia From: Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes <c...@cornell.edu> To: CAYUGABIRDS-L <cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu> Sent: Friday, April 5, 2013 9:49 AM Subject: Arctic Sea Ice - Re: [cayugabirds-l] Woodcocks???? Bob, I suspect the cool weather has a lot to do with it. I believe that we are having a significantly cooler-than-normal spring, due to the Jet Stream being slightly farther south or much broader than usual. This, as I understand it, is directly correlated to the reduction in sea ice in the arctic which in turn creates a weakened pressure differential north of the Jet Stream, allowing the cold arctic air to spill much farther south than normal. The following quote of text is from: http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/2012/06/arctic-ice-melt-sets-stage-cold-weather: "A diminished latitudinal pressure gradient is linked to a weakening of the winds associated with the polar vortex and jet stream. Since the polar vortex normally retains the cold Arctic air masses up above the Arctic Circle, its weakening allows the cold air to invade lower latitudes." More links: http://climatecrocks.com/2012/06/08/more-evidence-arctic-warming-effect-on-jet-stream-more-extremes/ http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/25/frozen-spring-arctic-sea-ice-loss I'm sure there are persons much more familiar with these weather changes, who can pipe up on this conversation... :-) Sincerely, Chris T-H On Apr 5, 2013, at 9:11 AM, bob mcguire wrote: Has anyone been hearing/seeing woodcocks in the past few days? > >Back at the beginning of March we had several here on Whitted Rd (Snyder >Hill). And in years past we have had up to seven in our and neighboring >fields. I went out last night around 8 pm to survey and could not find a one. >It was relatively mild and I did hear an occasional peeper. It doesn't seem reasonable that they would have taken a step back south. Are this year's numbers down? Does anyone have any idea? > >Bob McGuire > > > >-- > >Cayugabirds-L List Info: >http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME >http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES >http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm > >ARCHIVES: >1) http://firstname.lastname@example.org/maillist.html >2) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds >3) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html > >Please submit your observations to eBird: >http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ > >-- > > -- Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes Field Applications Engineer Bioacoustics Research Program, Cornell Lab of Ornithology 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York 14850 W: 607-254-2418 M: 607-351-5740 F: 607-254-1132 http://www.birds.cornell.edu/brp -- Cayugabirds-L List Info: Welcome and Basics Rules and Information Subscribe, Configuration and Leave Archives: The Mail Archive Surfbirds BirdingOnThe.Net Please submit your observations to eBird! -- -- Cayugabirds-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm ARCHIVES: 1) http://email@example.com/maillist.html 2) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds 3) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --