I was having an offline conversation with Laura Stenzler and Ton Schat about 
what days might be the best in the forecast for their personal 24-hour 
bird-a-thon. Laura thought it would be helpful to share some of the information 
below with the broader Cayugabirds-l group!


Upon initial review of the forecasts yesterday, the weekend was looking good. 
Now, upon review, the forecasts have changed. The warming trend that was 
shaping up looks like instead it will be blocked by a northern flow of air 
coming down from Canada and the Great Lakes starting Saturday morning. One 
forecast model shows the warm air hitting a hard brick wall by Sunday as far 
south as a line stretching from around Indianapolis through Columbus and 
southeast to Washington DC. That being said, both models show a southern 
airflow from Thursday night through Friday morning; albeit chilly, the air will 
be from the correct direction to assist migrants attempting to leap-frog their 
way north.

I use a combination of weather sites to make inferences (constantly changing…).

Magic Seaweed is one such site. Making sure the time zone is correctly set (top 
left option), I choose my region (bottom left menu) and alternate between wind 
and pressure (bottom right options; toggle on/off multiple panes at a time, or 
just one pane).

Try this link for Great Lakes region, wind, EDT:


Great Lakes Charts - 
Global surf forecasting charts. With various chart types including swell, surf, 
pressure, wind, MSLP, ECM and sea surface temperature - 

Try this link for Northeastern seaboard region, wind, EDT:


Move your mouse across the bottom from left to right to move through the 
forecast dates at the bottom. The closer you are to the current date, the more 
accurate the forecast.

Another site is Windy.com<http://windy.com/>.

Lots of custom configuration and tools available, probably the most versatile 

The following link has a pin drop positioned approximately over Ithaca with 
Temperature selected. Slide the bottom bar across to view the forecast. 
Different models can be selected at bottom right (NAM is most accurate and 
short-term, ECMWF and GFS are two longer-term models). Top right allows you to 
select different element views (wind, temperature, rain, etc.).


I found it most interesting to view Temperature element view for the particular 
interest of bird migration. The wind always shows as moving white lines. As you 
slide the forecast bar across the bottom, you can see how there is a strong 
line of demarcation that develops by Saturday morning, the one I described 
above. That may hinder migration coming in from the South.

Based upon the current forecast models, it looks like there could be good 
fallout conditions along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, or even 
here in Ithaca as well. We shall see—forecasts are dynamically changing by the 

Hope this helps!


Chris Tessaglia-Hymes
PO Box 488
8 Etna Lane
Etna, NY 13062


Cayugabirds-L List Info:

1) http://www.mail-archive.com/cayugabirds-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html
2) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds
3) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html

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