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To me the main point is how long MS wants to subsidize the hardware - they
are simply not making money on it (and never have).
The rumors are that Xbox II will be a much simpler, cheaper machine (no hard
drive for example). If that's true then they may be able to both make money
and gain market share.
Nintendo has already announced their next console and (as they always do)
have promised something "revolutionary" (I still don't know why they bother
producing consoles). Sony will probably bundle a next gen EyeToy with PS3.
So far the rumors are that all the new machines will be backwards compatible
with the previous generation - so they'll all have large, cheap libraries at
release (I think this helped PS2 more than many people think).
Unfortunately I just don't see the Xbox innovating much. PS2 developers
have the Eyetoy and have done many great sound-based games and recently
tried some microphone-based titles (not just team chat). Soon they'll have
the PSP to play with as well and the PS3 will mostly likely have the Eyetoy
and a mic as standard equipment.
Nintendo has leveraged Cube-to-Gameboy connectivity in many games, sometimes
brilliantly. The new DK Bongo controllers looks like a blast and the
GameBoy DS shows a real capability to carry through on innovative ideas and
technology conversion.
Xbox games look great and (often) play great, but none have broken any new
ground that I've seen. Many of them have leveraged Live very well, but not
in any way I'd call "innovative". Basically you seem to get the same
gameplay in a prettier package - I'm just not sure that'll carry them into
the next generation.
Sony's proven they can keep their customers across one generation, if they
can do it again then we may see a situation in 2007 very similar to the
situation today: Sony dominant with MS and Nintendo fighting it out for a
distant second.
Jim Davis
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