This is game theory that you're talking about, as opposed to pure statistics. You can determine who is more likely to win given all of the players stay in the game until its completion, and you know all of the cards that each player holds, and that is statistics. Game theory determines what the best course of action for a particular player given a set of knowns and unknowns for each player. For example, player one holds an ace and a king. Player two holds two kings. The shared cards are ace king two seven. You could figure out that player one is 95% likey to win, and that is stats. However, knowing that player two should fold if player one goes all in is game theory. I'm no expert on this - google it. Matthew Small Web Developer American City Business Journals 704-973-1045 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
-----Original Message----- From: Dana [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, December 22, 2004 9:46 AM To: CF-Community Subject: Re: Seeking advice on calculating odds I *think* that if you were able to find a large-scale study that said that in a given situation 45% of card players fold, you should be able to assign a 45% weight to this event, if this helps your algorithm. Remember though that your model will only be as good as your data. There is a fairly extensive discussion of this in the risk management chapter of the project management book I recommended to Ian. I think he bought it; ask him to let you take a look. If in fact he did not, then general idea is profit outcome 1 * probabitily outcome 1 profit outcome 2 * probability outcome 2 etc where the sum of probabilities is 1.0 This is also a finance concept whose name escapes me at the moment. Dana On Wed, 22 Dec 2004 09:29:24 -0500, Ben Doom <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I would say that you can't accurately calculate what another person is > going to do, so the only real numerical probabilities you can generate > are the ones regarding the cards themselves. After all, experienced > players have bluffed with (and occasionaly won with) "the hammer" -- 2 + > 7 off-suit. > > Having said that, if you're trying to build a computerized card-playing > system, you could certianly collect statistics on individual players to > know their habits, and could aggregate these as a starting point for new > players. > > --Ben > > Ken Ketsdever wrote: > > I'm in the process of developing a new card game and am interested in > > computing the odds. If I can understand the basics of the example > > below I think I will be in a better position to calculate what I > > need. > > > > To determine the odds I've opted to use Texas Hold'em as an example. > > > > > > I have been able to determine the pure mathematical odds of someone > > being dealt 2 cards then sharing 5 cards dealt up for everyone to > > use. However, is that all there is to it? If ten people are dealt > > two cards each then five cards are dealt face up (first 3 cards, bet, > > 1 card bet, 1 card, bet ) for all to use to complete their hand as > > in Texas hold'em does the odds need to take into consideration that > > the players with lower ranking hands are more likely to fold thereby > > increasing the odds for the higher hands? Or is it pure odds of > > getting certain cards? > > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Special thanks to the CF Community Suite Gold Sponsor - CFHosting.net http://www.cfhosting.net Message: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=i:5:140841 Archives: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/threads.cfm/5 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=s:5 Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5 Donations & Support: http://www.houseoffusion.com/tiny.cfm/54
