Trying to keep emissions at a minimum is smart. Forcing it because it
felt warmer, but now it doesn't, is not smart. Unless of course you
want to make a killing from selling useless insurance to suckers.

On Fri, Dec 19, 2008 at 10:57 AM, Judah McAuley <[email protected]> wrote:
> There is a problem with your insurance analogy that I think is
> important in this debate. You buy home owners insurance that covers
> potential fire damage. That's good and wise. If you go blythly along
> doing your own wiring without knowing much of anything about
> electricity and then your house catches on fire from it, maybe you're
> covered. Dudes come by, tear down the shell of your burnt house, start
> rebuilding it, you check into a motel glad that you got those 10 year
> batteries in the smoke alarms and that you weren't too drunk that
> particular night to wake up when the alarm went off. As for the burnt
> stuff, hey, its just stuff, right? Yeah, you probably shouldn't have
> wired a new addition to your house by yourself and you really know
> better, but man, permitting is a pain in the ass you know and those
> union electricians are so expensive and keep telling you shit like,
> "no, a 220 volt toaster is a bad idea above your new bath tub" even
> though you really want to be able to eat pop tarts while taking a
> bath.
>
> Unfortunately, we really don't have "insurance" when it comes to
> climate change. There is a pretty good consensus amongst climate
> scientists that continuing on the road we have been is equivalent to
> doing our own wiring and sticking a 220 volt toaster next to a bath
> tub. It could be that we will be fine and that the tolerance for our
> industrial activities in the environment is far greater than we now
> think. But what kind of insurance policy do we have? Can we just move
> to another planet and hang by the pool while contractors come in and
> rebuild?
>
> I'm all for a lot more climate study, there is an incredible amount to
> learn. But the studying isn't an insurance policy, it doesn't help us
> if we melt the polar ice caps and substantially decrease the salinity
> of the worlds oceans. A conservative approach says "well, it looks
> like there is a strong possibility that pumping CO2 into the
> atomosphere makes it a less than happy place for humans. Perhaps it
> would be wise to wrachet that back while we find out more about what
> all we can do."  That's an insurance policy. Strongly decreasing
> emissions now stands the best chance of giving us room for error. Its
> true that there is a lot we don't understand yet. And that's why we
> need the room for error. So lets err on the side of caution. Listen to
> the smart people, take prudent measures to make sure that we have time
> and room to figure out what we don't know.
>
> Judah

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