Ok, quick summary of the statistics once again.

There are two programs here, Social Security and Medicare. They have
nothing to do with one another and their problems are entirely
different.

Medicare is in tougher shape due to rising health care costs. That was
the impetus behind the first round of health insurance reform but, to
my mind, did only a small amount to help the issues facing Medicare. A
step in the right direction, perhaps, but only a step. The change in
population demographics are known. The changing cost of health care,
however, is less easy to pin down and has grown at a higher rate than
many had foreseen. Continual change in the Medicare program combined
with continuing overhaul of the health care delivery/billing system in
the US is obviously needed.

Social Security is in much better shape. The current estimate for the
point where funds coming in versus being paid out flips negative is
2037. At that point, payouts would be at roughly 80% of promised
levels. Not 0, which is good, but also not what we want. Social
Security can be brought into balance a variety of ways, including an
increase in the SSI payroll tax rate of 2%. This, it is estimated,
would fix the solvency issue for the next 75 years.

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html

We have choices. Perhaps it was just a poor choice of words on your
part. I don't discount the fact that we will have to make choices and
some of them aren't going to be pleasant. But I do believe we have
choices other than gutting the system and that with careful thought
and political will, we can bring everything back into balance and
continue our social safety net. The situation is not as doom and gloom
as many would have you believe.

Judah

On Tue, Jul 6, 2010 at 2:29 PM, Robert Munn <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> On Tue, Jul 6, 2010 at 2:18 PM, Judah McAuley <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>> Statistics beg to differ. I've pointed out, again and again, the
>> studies that show that we can keep Social Security and Medicare alive
>> as going concerns. You may not want them to, which is fine, but it is
>> utterly incorrect to say that there is no choice in the matter.
>
> We'll need to pay 85 cents on every dollar in taxes if we are to meet
> those obligations just by the middle of the century, and it only gets
> worse from there. The programs are unsustainable and need to be dealt
> with before they ruin the country.
>
> 

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