well this isn't peer-reviewed, but it looks authoritative

On Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 12:46 PM, Larry C. Lyons <[email protected]>wrote:

>
> numbers please or are you just making it up again. For best effect
> follow the Young and Varner methodology. The data are publicly
> available.
>
> On Tue, Mar 6, 2012 at 2:49 PM, Sam <[email protected]> wrote:
> >
> > Look at CA
> >
> > .
> >
> > On Tue, Mar 6, 2012 at 2:41 PM, Larry C. Lyons <[email protected]>
> wrote:
> >>
> >> Not necessarily so:
> >>
> >> An paper by Cristobal Young and Charles Varner found that while some
> >> $500,000-plus earners left the state, their rates of out-migration
> >> were broadly in line with the rates for the rest of the population,
> >> who were not subject to the tax.
> >>
> http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2011/04/20/millionaire-tax-didnt-chase-the-rich-from-new-jersey-study-says/
> >>
> >> Young and Varner, estimated the migration effect of New Jersey’s 2004
> >> tax increase on filers with incomes exceeding $500,000.  They found
> >> that while the net out-migration rate of this income group accelerated
> >> after the tax increase went into effect, so did the net outmigration
> >> rate of filers with incomes between $200,000 and $500,000, and by
> >> virtually the same amount.
> >>
> >> At most, the authors estimated, 70 filers earning more than $500,000
> >> might have left New Jersey between 2004 and 2007 because of the tax
> >> increase, costing the state an estimated $16.4 million in tax revenue.
> >>  The revenue gain from the tax increase over those years was an
> >> estimated $3.77 billion, meaning that out-migration — if there was any
> >> at all — reduced the estimated revenue gain by a mere 0.4 percent.
> >> http://www.cbpp.org/files/8-4-11sfp.p
> >
> >
>
> 

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