Two new polls out today that provide both Likely Voter and Registered Voter results.
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama over Romney 48-43 (LV), 46-41 (RV) Monmouth: Obama over Romney 48-45 (LV), 48-41 (RV) In both cases, the Registered Voter sample (which does not try to estimate and correct for turn out) has as big or wider a margin than the Likely Voter model. And given those results amongst likely voters where the total of Obama plus Romney is over 90%, that means that there are very few undecided voters. Still possible for things to change, of course, but those are tough numbers. Judah On Mon, Sep 17, 2012 at 1:47 PM, GMoney <[email protected]> wrote: > > It might be argued that Fox would want to show Obama as winning in order to > coax more reluctant Romney supporters to case their votes. > > But on the flipside, Americans love to back a winner......so....maybe that > goes out the window. > > On Mon, Sep 17, 2012 at 3:26 PM, Eric Roberts < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> >> Even Fox says Obama a winning... >> >> ------------------------------------ >> Three Ravens Consulting >> Eric Roberts >> Owner/Developer >> [email protected] >> tel: 630-486-5255 >> fax: 630-310-8531 >> http://www.threeravensconsulting.com >> ------------------------------------ >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: Judah McAuley [mailto:[email protected]] >> Sent: Monday, September 17, 2012 2:58 PM >> To: cf-community >> Subject: Re: Timeline of events in Egypt and Libya >> >> >> All polls that use a "likely voter" model calibrate their population sample >> based on their model of how they think the actual voting population will >> come out. Each polling outfit uses their own model and it can be just a >> top-line number (we predict that 53% of the voters will be Democrats and >> 47% >> will be Republicans) or it can be more nuanced, breaking down the >> population >> by age, gender and race (for example). A lot of these models will use >> sample >> data, where they call people and find out how confident they are that >> they'll be out voting on Nov. 6th and some will also use adjustments to >> populations from previous elections. Will the voting populace look like >> 2008 >> (higher than historic norms for turn outs of minority and young voters) or >> will it look more like 2004 or 2000? Are Republicans or Democrats more >> fired >> up to get out and vote? Will Independents say fuck it and stay home or do >> they feel motivated to cast a vote one way or another? >> >> So, yes, it is true that the different polls have different samples for >> likely voter screens. A lot of polling outfits think that having Obama on >> the ticket and recent battles over student loans and such will keep >> minority >> and youth voting rates closer to 2008 levels than, say, 2004 levels. They >> adjust their likely voter sample to reflect those guesses. Republicans, of >> course, are betting on disillusionment because of the economy and the lack >> of movement in Congress to keep a lot of people home who came out in 2008 >> because they thought things could change. If they are right and those >> people >> stay home, it's true that the likely voter models would be over sampling >> for >> Obama. >> >> Undercutting the sampling argument, however, is the fact that national >> polls >> of registered voters (that don't resample for likeliness of >> voting) also show a modest cut consistent lead for Obama of around 3 >> points. >> Polls being done to assess voter enthusiasm also point to Democrats being >> as >> enthusiastic or more enthusiastic than Republican voters, so the argument >> that the LV samples are horribly wrong seem pretty weak to me. Possible, >> but >> unlikely. >> >> Cheers, >> Judah >> >> On Mon, Sep 17, 2012 at 12:17 PM, Jerry Barnes <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> > >> > "Most polls have Obama ahead, thought it's a slight margin. " >> > >> > Just came across this article about polling for this election: >> > http://www.theblaze.com/stories/this-graph-shows-why-obama-is-ahead-in >> > -the-polls/ >> > >> > It has a nice graph that shows the lead along with the over sampling. >> > Here is the graph broken down: >> > >> > Poll,Lead,Over sampling >> > Rasmussen,-1,-1 >> > Tipp,2,5 >> > CBS/NYT,3,6 >> > Fox News,5,6 >> > Ipsos/Reuters,7,9 >> > ABC,1,10 >> > Dem Corp,5,11 >> > >> >> >> >> > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Order the Adobe Coldfusion Anthology now! http://www.amazon.com/Adobe-Coldfusion-Anthology/dp/1430272155/?tag=houseoffusion Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:355209 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/unsubscribe.cfm
