Hi Maureen,

Ahem, you say PROFIT for the oil producers and retailers.
Pardon me being pedantic for a moment.

Ya gots 2 kinds of players in this market -

(1) the vertically-integrated giants like BP, ChevronTexaco, Royal Dutch
Shell, etc,
who have both upstream (exploration and production) and downstream
(refining and marketing) assets, and

(2) the independent downstream companies (Sunoco, Tesoro, Valero, Premcor,
etc.) who have 
just refineries and retail stations (or wholesaling deals).

In "normal" gasoline-price times, when crude prices are high, the
integrated companies make money on crude, and may lose money on refining
and marketing. When crude prices are low, they may lose money on crude, but
make money downstream.

The independents have no such luxury.
When crude prices are high, and gas prices cannot be increased, they get
crunched.
In fact, over the last few months, my employer (Tesoro Petroleum) was in a
severe financial crunch because of this.
The stock price which, in the last 12 months had been as high as $15, fell
to about $1.25.

And for quite a while, the retailers were getting crunched between high
wholesale prices and low demand at the pump, which prevented them from
raising retail prices. 

The margin environment is changing to the point where my employer isn't in
as much danger of violating its lending covenants, and the retail stations
are making a profit (and trying to make up for the losses).

All that said, I am _not_ disagreeing with your comment "But it's not about
oil."
Consider the rise of militant Islam (Wahabiism) in Saudi Arabia, and the
often-unpublicized anti-Western press there.
The U.S. government figures it must ensure a successor supply if the
relationship with the Saudis turns south.
And, the French and Russians aren't making the profits they are
contractually supposed to from Iraq, because of Saddam.

Just my 2 gallons worth.

-Ben


At 04:06 PM 3/4/03 -0500, you wrote:
>At 04:02 PM 3/4/03, Ben wrote:
>
>>Or, what's the _real_ agenda??
>
>Retail gas prices are up an average of 56 cents a gallon.
>Wholesale gas prices are up only 14 cents a gallon.
>US gas consumption averages over 350 million gallons per day.
>That's over 147 million dollars a day in PROFIT for the oil producers and 
>retailers.
>
>But it's not about oil. ;-)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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