>>That would mean that everyone who uses Windows using IE 5.5+,

No, because you also have all those using IE on Macs ;-)
When one say 95% of IE users, this include about all Mac users.
The 5% remaining are not Mac users, but Opera, Mozilla, etc.

>>most people who are using modern browsers such as IE 5.5
  certainly do have Java.

IE 5.5 yes, but about 60% of users are running version 6 which does not include the
"Virtual Machine" and many of those people won't even try to install it.

>>It is entirely possible that the percentage of people with Java
installed is actually higher than the number of people who have IE 5.5+.

IMHO it is much probable it is far less than that.



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