On Feb 13, 2005, at 7:16 PM, Dave Watts wrote:

>> Sure, the shared hosts  providers and server farms  will be
>> with for us a while (maybe a long while), but the one-sies,
>> the small web hosts are coming... (as sure as the bloggers
>> are replacing the traditional media as a source for
>> information and news.
>
> There are two problems with this statement. First, the whole blogging
> "phenomenon" is hardly replacing the traditional media. It's certainly
> supplementing it for a lot of people, and it may draw attention to news
> that's underreported by the mainstream media, but it's still marginal 
> at
> best. I have no reason to believe that'll change any time soon. 
> Second, how
> you get from that to thinking that everyone will run their own web 
> server I
> don't know. I suspect that any movement here is actually going in the
> opposite direction. Web hosting, like many other things, takes 
> advantage of
> economies of scale.

It is a prediction!

I didn't say everyone!

>
>> Anyone with a $500 computer, a $19/mo DSL connection (and
>> little more) can host a credible web site...  and provide as
>> much service to their clientele as, say, Victoria's Secret,
>> does to theirs.
>
> Aside from the fact that this is usually against your licensing 
> agreement,
> as Sean pointed out, this simply isn't going to fly. Again, economies 
> of
> scale come into play.

See my comment to Sean;s post.

I already have the computer and the DSL/Cable connection.

> There's a bunch of infrastructure behind any web site,
> even small insignificant ones. Why would anyone want to be responsible 
> for
> that if they can avoid it?

I am not talking about "Traditional" production sites, but:

A developer, hosting his own site for client & customer demos training

A family with kids wanting to publish a personal site for friends & 
family (the cost savings of sending each new picture of the kids, is 
pretty good justification)

These sites, are low volume, low concurrency, don't need to be 
bullet-proof or even on available on-demand,

As mentioned above, I already have the DSL/Cable connection and the 
computer.

I can buy a package that includes the rest of the "infrastructure" 
pre-installed!

>
>> To the smaller, emerging shop, Macromrdia's cost of entry is
>> way out there.  They can not afford it!  They will look elsewhere.
>>
>> I believe this market will be served by open-source and
>> proprietary software vendors with more flexible offerings:
>> Laszlo (God I hate typing that name), New Atlanta, Railo, to
>> mention a few.
>>
>> No disrespect to Macromedia intended... but if they do not
>> supply their server products at affordable prices, the
>> smaller customers will seek alternatives. that will.
>
> This is nothing new. Linux/Apache/MySQL/Perl have all been around for 
> quite
> some time. If you're comparing something on price alone, it's hard to
> compete with "free" no matter how low your price is. So, there are two
> obvious questions to me at least. The first question is, does the 
> product
> make things easier enough to cover its price? I think that for the 
> current
> Flex adopters, the answer is yes. The second question is, at what price
> point does Macromedia do best? I can't answer that for them, but I can 
> only
> assume that they've arrived at their own conclusions.

I agree that Macromedia has a price point that works for them.

It doesn't always work for others-- that's why they seek alternatives.

Dick


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