https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watch_Tower_Society_unfulfilled_predictions
Þann sun., 23. jún. 2019, 02:40 Ian Clark skrifaði <[email protected]>: > Donna — thank you for that cascade of primary sources. To my shame I'd > forgotten about NASA – at least for earth-directed matters. > > Here in England we have the Met (Meteorological) Office as a more > digestible source of climate statistics – at least for the 14-18 age group: > > https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/climate-and-climate-change/climate-change/index > which has further links. > > The advantage of the Met Office is that it's not the website of a > campaigning organisation, which could in principle be trimming its figures > to fit its outlook. The Met Office has an overriding mission to forecast > the weather accurately. Period. > > > Students should be made aware that actual climate models are more complex > than could run in TABULA because they would otherwise be skeptical of any > results reported. > > I would have thought this goes without saying. But maybe it doesn't…? > > It's not so long ago that people were apt to believe anything they saw in > print. I suspect that this attitude didn't go away, but simple went a bit > hazy in a world of cheap abundant print. Maybe the modern version is this? > – "you gotta believe anything programmed into a computer." If so, then any > teacher of science has a hard fight on her hands. Because what she'll be > invited to teach is not science, but a sort of new-age religion: let's call > it scientism. Cross-your-fingers the teacher herself knows the difference. > > I collect examples of scientism. Like "do you *believe* this model?" – > Sorry, a model is just that: a model. Not a god: to be believed in. > > Or again: "Once upon a time people believed UVW. But now we *know* it's > XYZ" – Sorry, the next generation will be saying "Once upon a time people > believed XYZ. But now we know it's something else". I like the way Stephen > Hawking treated this issue in A Brief History of Time. > > Science doesn't stay still. But scientism cries "Stop! We've arrived!" A > model-building tool like TABULA is value-neutral. But as you talk to the > class about improving the model, it should become clear to all but the > thickest, most bigoted student it's not written on tablets of gold. But… > yes, I know… some kid is going to put up his hand and ask "Why don't you > give us the RIGHT model?" > > You could build entire systems of education around the possible answers to > that question. > > There's also a line of argument which runs: leave it to the experts. Don't > dabble in ideas which are too big for your silly cotton head. If the > leading model runs on a Cray, then don't be so presumptive as to run one on > anything less. This, to me, turns a mere laboratory into a temple, with > exclusive rights to commune with the godhead. It is to foist scientism on > the next generation, in lieu of encouraging independence of thought. > > There are gender differences in people's attitudes here. Purely cultural > ones, I hope, which may vanish in a generation. > > Meanwhile, back at the TABULA coalface… > > 1. As it stands, the addon: math/tabula is written in jqt and relies > heavily on its features. But math/tabula is only a shell on top of > math/cal, and the hollowest of shells at that. Given time, better > javascript skills plus an army of helpers, I'd implement a JHS-based > version. This would make it feasible to replace a major credibility black > hole (the table of constants, UUC, which has no mechanism to reveal its > sources) with the direct import of values from reputable webpages. > I've already prototyped this approach by importing up-to-date exchange > rates for a handful of currencies from the European Central Bank. So I know > it works as a proof-of-concept. I've not included it in this version of > math/uu for a host of itty-bitty practicalities which only complicate the > release of the app, if you don't actually need the feature. > > 2. Like Excel, TABULA doesn't allow circular updating. Adding this facility > would give it seven-league boots when it comes to building models and > simulations. I don't need to be told how to do it: there's almost too many > possibilities. But all the ones I've prototyped rely on clicking a tool in > the toolbar to take the model to the next "epoch", as simulation modellers > call it. It's basically the same principle as SAMPLE - the built-in > un-numbered sample that you can (re)load by simply typing '$'. In place of > "plot" in line {5} there's a function called "transfer" which, on receipt > of some message or other, pumps a value back up the arrow. > That message could be issued by a timer, of course. Or a slider, or simply > the movement of the mouse on the mousemat. > Does anyone have an idea how they'd like the facility to look? > > 3. Another idea, based on the same SAMPLE, is to link the t-table to an > animated picture. In a way, the Plot package already does this, plotting > {2} {3} {4} against {1} as a line chart. I have in mind a more general > picture, which would follow the values in the T-table (and vice-versa) – > wheels turning, sprites moving through space, vessels filling up. What I'm > looking for is a sufficiently flexible scheme for the non-expert user to > customize herself. A browser like Safari will show a svg graphic: these > things are basically xml which is fairly easy to compose and to animate > using just J. > Another possibility is to program the plot package itself, which I'm told > can draw elaborate free-form pictures in a gl2-sort of way, although I've > never seen examples. This has the advantage that it needs no exotic > middleware like Flash, in fact no supporting software that's not already a > well-integrated part of TABULA (or JAL). > Can anyone point me at illustrative examples? (Read my mind…) > > Ian Clark > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm
