By no means am I a Juniper fanatic (nor am I a Cisco fanatic). But allow me to add some points here.
""Wes Stevens"" wrote in message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > Peter I have been following and trading Juniper stock for years. In the > beginning everyone loved it because it was so focused - just high end > routers. Two things came together in 2000 to help them grow sales 6x over > 1999 one was the massive build out of the telcos and the other was the fact > that they had a year lead on cisco for delivering 192 interfaces. Juniper's biggest opening was indeed due to the fact that Cisco was late in delivering its 192 interfaces. But even now that Cisco has its 124xx series out, Juniper's products still enjoy key technical advantages, as detailed in Lightreading and other studies. Perhaps the key advantage is that Cisco's routers (all series) have been notorious for having its performance drop precipitously whenever you turn on a significant number of services, something that does not happen with Juniper. Other advantages include faster BGP convergence and the ability to handle huge BGP route tables, which is important if you want to implement lots of RFC2547 VPN's. Not to mention the bizarre Engine 0/1/2/4 paradigm and of course the sheer brawn of the new Juniper T640 which Cisco will not match anytime soon. That's not to say that Cisco doesn't hold some advantages of its own. For example, Cisco's CoS implementation is more flexible. Cisco has some interesting fault-tolerance features with its DPT technology that Juniper does not have. And of course Cisco enjoys the advantages of being the incumbent, so that means that people are simply more familiar with their gear (but this can be looked at the other way too, as that makes the fact that Juniper has still managed to win significant share even more impressive). >In 2001 > the telco's started cutting back and juniper sales growth went to up 32 %, > but all of it came in the first half. Since mid year last year sales have > been dropping qtr over qtr. The biggest reason is the same reason the > analysts used to love it - focused only on the high end telco market. Well > the telco's are in a world of trouble. They are so deep in dept that most > will never climb out. Global xing bit the dust and it looks like wcom may > follow. Quest is in deep trouble too. Believe it or not the only hope for a > recovery in the next year is that these big guys go chapter 11 and then > reorg. All the investors get screwed but their debt goes away and they may > have some money to invest again. All of the major telcos cut capex for the > rest of this year and next in their first quarter report. Yes it is definitely true that the service-provider market is fuc*ed up now. But that's not to say that Cisco hasn't been hurt by this as well. In fact you may recall that 5 years ago or so Cisco's strategy to unseat the telco vendor incumbents at that time - Nortel, Lucent, Alcatel, Siemens, etc. - was to back "New-Economy" telcos, and this super-charged Cisco's growth through the late 90's. Now of course these new telcos are mostly dead. Now I do agree completely that Juniper is being hurt proportionately more than Cisco is being hurt by the telco wasteland. But that's not to say that Cisco isn't being hurt at all. >Juniper's also has > to deal with cisco now as they are going after that same market and have > taken share away in the last year. I disagree with this, in this way. Obviously I agree that Cisco has gained overall share for the simple reason that the whole provider subsegment is down. However, if you're talking about gaining share within that provider subsegment, then this unclear. The only studies that have shown such a thing is Dell'Oro, and these studies are problematic, specifically because they choose to include any router that is OC-192 capable is counted as a provider sale. Doesn't matter whether that router is actually sold to a provider or an enterprise. It also doesn't matter whether the actual OC192 interfaces themselves are sold, just the chassis. It's been well know that Cisco has sold quite a few of those 124xx routers to enterprises. And in fact, no significant Juniper customer has been lost to Cisco. So it's difficult to say using just Dell'Oro whether share within the provider subsegment was really gained or not. >This will be especially a problem in > markets outside the us where cisco already has a presence and juniper does > not. The last two purchases by Juniper say the reconize the problem as they > are trying to broaden their product line. But they paid too much for > Unishere and it will be dilutive this year. Well, I would say that if Cisco is calling Juniper too acquisitive, then it's really a case of the pot calling the kettle black. Cisco has been one of the most rapaciously acquisitive companies in history. And in fact much of the reason that Cisco has been so successful is precisely due to certain key acquisitions like the Crescendo acquisition. As far as paying too much, well, it's not like Cisco hasn't been guilty of this as well. Let's face it, certain acquisitions just didn't work for Cisco, remember Stratacom? Others worked from a strategy standpoint, but not from a financial standpoint. Cerent and Arrowpoint had fine products, and their technologies have been useful to fill key holes in Cisco's product line. But let's face facts. Arrowpoint was not worth $5.7 billion, and Cerent was not worth $7 billion. > > The bottom line is that the big telcos are in real trouble and there is > still a lot of competition and excess capacity out there. Their capex > spending is going to be the last thing to recover and along with it Juniper. > > Another good indication is in the job market. Go to dice.com or hotjobs and > do a search on jncie and ccie and see what you get for both. Already dealt with this point. > > > >From: "Peter van Oene" > >Reply-To: "Peter van Oene" > >To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Subject: Re: How do I approach the company about my CCIE [7:40261] > >Date: Tue, 28 May 2002 08:43:09 -0400 > > > >What leads you to believe that they "will be at the tail end of the > >recovery?" > > > >At 09:04 PM 5/27/2002 -0400, Wes Stevens wrote: > > >Jenny I assume you are talking about Juniper. I really don't know > >anything > > >about their cert. The company I know pretty well. I would not want to be > > >looking for a job in this market place with only Juniper experience. > >Juniper > > >will not go away for sure, but they will be at the tail end of the > >recovery > > >at best. > > > > > > > > > >From: "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" > > > >Reply-To: "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" > > > >To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > >Subject: Re: How do I approach the company about my CCIE [7:40261] > > > >Date: Mon, 27 May 2002 19:15:12 -0400 > > > > > > > >"A CCIE is still the highest networking cert and the only one that is > >not > >a > > > > > > > >paper cert. " > > > > > > > >I'll save nrf the trouble of saying this. > > > >Highest networking cert? Arguable. Depends how you define "highest". > >But > > > >it's certainly not a totally unreasonable claim. Only one that is not > >a > > > >paper cert? Hardly. Try doing a little more research. > > > >However, if you substitute "Cisco" for "networking" in your original > > > >sentence, it looks far more accurate. > > > > > > > >Cisco is not the only player, or even the only significant player, in > >the > > > >networking game. > > > > > > > >JMcL > > > > > > > > > > > >----- Forwarded by Jenny Mcleod/NSO/CSDA on 28/05/2002 08:39 am ----- > > > > > > > > > > > >"Wes Stevens" > > > >Sent by: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > >27/05/2002 11:40 pm > > > >Please respond to "Wes Stevens" > > > > > > > > > > > > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > cc: > > > > Subject: Re: How do I approach the company about my > >CCIE > > > >[7:40261] > > > >Is this part of a business decision process?: > > > > > > > > > > > >If you look at Cisco over the last 18 months compared to it's > >competitors > > > >it > > > >has done well. It's sales have dropped much less then most other > > > >networking > > > >companies and they have actually gained market share in all major > >areas. > > > >The > > > >major telco's built out way too fast and the growth did not come like > >they > > > > > > > >expected. But on the enterprise side companies took it a lot slower. > >This > > > >economy is starting a slow recovery. Next year things will pick up. It > > > >will > > > >never be like 1999 as you say, but we will get back to the point where > > > >there > > > >will be plenty of jobs. > > > > > > > >A CCIE is still the highest networking cert and the only one that is > >not a > > > > > > > >paper cert. We have seen a lot more numbers comming out these days, but > > > >Cisco doubled the number of lab seats in San Jose and RTP back in > >March. > > > >Add > > > >to that the one day lab and Sat and Sun testing and there are a lot > >more > > > >people taking the test. Cisco keeps track of the passing percent and > >will > > > >adjust the challenge of the lab if necessary. The other thing is we > > > >probably > > > >will see major changes in the lab before the end of the year. When they > > > >get > > > >rid of token ring who knows what goodies they will replace it with. It > > > >will > > > >take a while for the boot camps to adjust their programs to the new > >topics > > > > > > > >and the candidates that take the self study route will be searching for > > > >ways > > > >to cover the new material. There will be a big slow down for a while at > > > >that > > > >point. > > > > > > > > > > > >I guess my point is I do not see the value of the CCIE going the way of > > > >the > > > >microsoft certs. Thing will get better next year and the demand for > >CCIE's > > > > > > > >will raise. > > > > > > > >[snipped] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Important: This e-mail is intended for the use of the addressee and > >may > > > >contain information that is confidential, commercially valuable or > >subject > > > >to legal or parliamentary privilege. If you are not the intended > >recipient > > > >you are notified that any review, re-transmission, disclosure, use or > > > >dissemination of this communication is strictly prohibited by several > > > >Commonwealth Acts of Parliament. 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