Colext/Macondo Cantina virtual de los COLombianos en el EXTerior --------------------------------------------------
Estos datos de los diarios colombianos dan un poco de claridad al asunto: 18 enero 2002 al 11 feb. 2002 Civiles muertos por: Paras 84 Ejercito 1 FARC 30 Desconocidos 16 Militares muertos por: FARC 88 Guerrilleros muertos por: Ejercito 30 Policia 6 PARAS 8 PARAS muertos por: FARC 1 On 12 Feb 2002 at 0:56, Carlos Davila wrote: > Colext/Macondo > Cantina virtual de los COLombianos en el EXTerior > -------------------------------------------------- > > La respuesta d�bil del gobierno ante los ataques recientes de la guerrilla > demuestra que a pesar de tener unos helic�pteros y aviones de ventaja, las > fuerzas militares Colombianas siguen siendo relativamente incompetentes. Yo > aun estoy esperando noticias sobre que paso cuando el ejercito tenia > completamente "rodeado" a varios millares de guerrilleros de las FARC hace > un par de meces. Me parece te refieres a los siguiente: "A 30 ascendi� el n�mero de guerrilleros de las Farc muertos en los combates que libran contra el Ej�rcito en el Guaviare. Tres militares tambi�n perdieron la vida en la ofensiva." El Tiempo 20 agosto 2001. En los �ltimos meses la iniciativa parece haver pasado a manos de los guerrilleros. Alguien supo algo de la derrota definitiva de las FARC que > en esos d�as anunciaba el General Tapias en sus ruedas de prensa? Luego de > leer el estudio de la Rand que envi� a la lista (ver abajo) me est�n > entrando dudas de que las fuerzas militares pueden derrotar la guerrilla en > una "guerra total" en el corto plazo (digo "guerra total" entre comillas por > que pienso que ya estamos en una guerra total, aunque casi nadie quiere > reconocerlo). La guerrilla parece estar mucho mas motivada que las fuerzas > del gobierno, algo que en guerra (como en cualquier aspecto de la vida) vale > mas que desventajas en n�meros o equipamiento. > > Saludos, > Carlos > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Carlos Davila [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > > Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 11:24 PM > > To: ColExt > > Subject: Colext: El laberinto Colombiano > > > > > > Colext/Macondo > > Cantina virtual de los COLombianos en el EXTerior > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > > El an�lisis del Instituto Rand (analiza temas de pol�tica en > > EU) sobre la > > situaci�n en Colombia tiene un prognosis mas bien grave para el pa�s: > > http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1339/ > > > > Chapter Eight: COLOMBIAN FUTURES (75K) > > > > Scenario 1: Successful Peace Agreement > > Scenario 2: Turning the Tide > > Scenario 3: Stalemate > > Scenario 4: The Peruvian Model > > Scenario 5: Disintegration > > Scenario 6: FARC Takeover or Power-Sharing > > Scenario 7: Internationalization of the Conflict > > Probable Future Path > > > > PROBABLE FUTURE PATH > > The interaction of the trend lines described in the preceding chapters > > will determine which of these Colombian futures ocurs. Although > > the direction of the trends is not positive, the deterioration of the > > Colombian government's position has not reached an irreversible > > stage. Currently there is a stalemate, with all sides preparing for an > > intensified level of violence. The catalyst is expected to be the > > gov-ernment's > > implementation of the "Drive to the South" anticipated in > > Plan Colombia. Alternatively, the FARC could decide to preempt the > > government's advance in Putumayo by escalating the war in other > > parts of Colombia. This new phase of the war could witness the use > > of surface-to-air missiles by the guerrillas to deny the government > > use of helicopters and aircraft or inflict a major defeat on > > one of the > > new counter-narcotics battalions. Escalation of the fighting will > > likely be accompanied by mobilization of the civilian population in > > the guerrilla-controlled areas to oppose government counter-narcotics > > operations. Through its international support network, the > > FARC can also be expected to seek to deny international assistance to > > the Colombian government. > > > > As noted earlier, a stalemate is not likely to be stable at > > an intensified > > level of violence, and over time the balance will tilt to one > > side or the > > other. The Colombian government, left to its own devices, does not > > have the institutional or material resources to reverse unfavorable > > trends, but the FARC also has weaknesses that could be exploited. > > The FARC's political weakness-lack of support among the popula-tion > > at large-raises the possibility that the guerrilla threat could be > > contained or defeated if the government succeeds in enlisting active > > popular support and seizing the strategic and operational initiative. > > U.S. assistance to the Colombian government and armed forces in > > developing an effective strategy and acquiring the capabilities to > > implement it will be an important factor influencing Colombia's > > path. That factor, together with Bogot�'s receptivity to innovation in > > its politico-military approach, will have a major influence on > > whether the Colombian government is able to turn the tide or > > whether deterioration continues, leading to one of the downside > > scenarios described above. > > > > In any intensified conflict scenario-regardless of which side holds > > the advantage-the regional effects of the Colombian situation are > > likely to become amplified. The next chapter analyzes the effect of > > the Colombian conflict on neighboring states and the prospects that > > it will metastasize into a wider regional upheaval. > > > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------- > > To unsubscribe send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > with UNSUBSCRIBE COLEXT as the BODY of the message. > > > > Un archivo de colext puede encontrarse en: > > http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ > > cortesia de Anibal Monsalve Salazar > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------- > To unsubscribe send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > with UNSUBSCRIBE COLEXT as the BODY of the message. > > Un archivo de colext puede encontrarse en: > http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ > cortesia de Anibal Monsalve Salazar > > Jesus desde Seattle -------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] with UNSUBSCRIBE COLEXT as the BODY of the message. Un archivo de colext puede encontrarse en: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ cortesia de Anibal Monsalve Salazar
