Colext/Macondo Cantina virtual de los COLombianos en el EXTerior --------------------------------------------------
El an�lisis del Instituto Rand (analiza temas de pol�tica en EU) sobre la situaci�n en Colombia tiene un prognosis mas bien grave para el pa�s: http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1339/ Chapter Eight: COLOMBIAN FUTURES (75K) Scenario 1: Successful Peace Agreement Scenario 2: Turning the Tide Scenario 3: Stalemate Scenario 4: The Peruvian Model Scenario 5: Disintegration Scenario 6: FARC Takeover or Power-Sharing Scenario 7: Internationalization of the Conflict Probable Future Path PROBABLE FUTURE PATH The interaction of the trend lines described in the preceding chapters will determine which of these Colombian futures ocurs. Although the direction of the trends is not positive, the deterioration of the Colombian government's position has not reached an irreversible stage. Currently there is a stalemate, with all sides preparing for an intensified level of violence. The catalyst is expected to be the gov-ernment's implementation of the "Drive to the South" anticipated in Plan Colombia. Alternatively, the FARC could decide to preempt the government's advance in Putumayo by escalating the war in other parts of Colombia. This new phase of the war could witness the use of surface-to-air missiles by the guerrillas to deny the government use of helicopters and aircraft or inflict a major defeat on one of the new counter-narcotics battalions. Escalation of the fighting will likely be accompanied by mobilization of the civilian population in the guerrilla-controlled areas to oppose government counter-narcotics operations. Through its international support network, the FARC can also be expected to seek to deny international assistance to the Colombian government. As noted earlier, a stalemate is not likely to be stable at an intensified level of violence, and over time the balance will tilt to one side or the other. The Colombian government, left to its own devices, does not have the institutional or material resources to reverse unfavorable trends, but the FARC also has weaknesses that could be exploited. The FARC's political weakness-lack of support among the popula-tion at large-raises the possibility that the guerrilla threat could be contained or defeated if the government succeeds in enlisting active popular support and seizing the strategic and operational initiative. U.S. assistance to the Colombian government and armed forces in developing an effective strategy and acquiring the capabilities to implement it will be an important factor influencing Colombia's path. That factor, together with Bogot�'s receptivity to innovation in its politico-military approach, will have a major influence on whether the Colombian government is able to turn the tide or whether deterioration continues, leading to one of the downside scenarios described above. In any intensified conflict scenario-regardless of which side holds the advantage-the regional effects of the Colombian situation are likely to become amplified. The next chapter analyzes the effect of the Colombian conflict on neighboring states and the prospects that it will metastasize into a wider regional upheaval. -------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] with UNSUBSCRIBE COLEXT as the BODY of the message. Un archivo de colext puede encontrarse en: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ cortesia de Anibal Monsalve Salazar
