Here's a more likely scenario: Approaching endgame, there are 10 "resolved" fights that remain to be played out. The program estimates is won 5 of them and lost 5 of them, each with 85% confidence. The sizes of the groups is such that any single switch from won to lost will swing the game. The probability of one such flip is pretty high.
If one of the groups is much larger, you should go for the big group, because if it switches, the game is flipped irrevocably, whereas if one of the small groups flips, it might be corrected by switching status of another group. That's why you should play for the big win, or to avoid the big loss. It swamps all the other uncertainties. Of course, current programs don't see the situation with anything approaching this level of analysis, but given a choice or a big win or a small win with slightly higher probability, I suspect that detailed analysis would be similar to the above. _______________________________________________ computer-go mailing list [email protected] http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
