> So I wouldn't be surprised at all if at some point you'll see a
> marriage of the best ideas of traditional Go programs and Monte-
> Carlo / UCT. In fact, this is most likely already happening as these
> Monte-Carlo programs use algorithms / ideas from the traditional
> programs for tactics, pattern-matching and possibly others.. And I go
> out on a limb to predict that at some point "heavy playouts" will use
> information like territory, eye-space and group-strength to guide
> their playouts just like the "traditional" programs do. And that
> using fixed 3x3 patterns will be a passing fad.

You don't even have to go out on a limb ;-)

One detriment to this is still that increasing the strength of playouts
does not make them necessarily better.

This might cause a schism in the kind of information that is needed
between classical approaches and Monte Carlo. So I do not think both
approaches will totally converge.

> This comes to my first point. Optimizing early in a project is like
> listening to the devil. It eats up a lot of time, the visible
> progress is gratifying but in the grand scheme of things it's not all
> that important to do early. I implemented it using pseudo-liberties
> because... uh, well, because that's what everyone seemed to be doing
> to get high numbers of playouts per second. But I already start to
> doubt using pseudo-liberties are all that useful. Is anybody still
> using pure-random playouts for anything? As soon as you start to do
> anything more, pseudo-liberties are pretty useless.

I agree here, and I made the same mistake.

> But the speed of the random playout becoms less and less important
> with heavy playouts.

This I don't understand at all. The improvement curve for being
faster isn't different with heavy than with light playouts.

> Next I was thinking about another subject that got some attention on
> this list, the mercy rule. It seems to save about 10% in the number
> of moves per game (on 19x19) and result in about 20% gain in
> performance. This discrepancy is most likely due to the fact that the
> administration, whether using pseudo-liberties or real, is much
> slower towards the end of the game because you have more moves that
> merge chains. And those 10% moves it saves are of course always at
> the end. So is it relevant? I don't know whether heavy playouts will
> be slower towards the end of the game or not. Possibly yes, as more
> moves made will have a small number of liberties that will need
> tactical analysis. I'd say that generally reducing the move-count is
> a good thing whichever method one uses. Possibly at a later stage
> more sophisticated methods can be developed to abort a game early.

Possibly the mercy rule is a premature optimization just like psuedo-
liberties :-)

> Next I allowed suicide only for White.

You allowed single-stone suicide too, I guess? This is obviously bad
since it will happen constinously near the end of an MC playout.
It will be like one side is forced to pass 50% of the time and the
other side not.

-- 
GCP
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