Everyone is looking at the top end of the scalability study
   http://cgos.boardspace.net/study/

But what happens in the low end? Both programs show linear progress to begin
with, then a corner, and more (almost?) linear development.

Fatman's curve has a clear break at 3 doublings, when it suddenly starts to
improve much slower than before. This goes on until 12 doublings, after which
we get the mysterious decline.

Mogo's curve is pretty well linear to 4 doublings, after that there is more
variation (I suppose random), but the overall scope is clearly not what it
was below 4.


It is possible that both programs have a subtle bug that starts to disturb
results around this point, but I find it quite unlikely.

The breaks happe at 1350 - 1550 ELO points. Isn't that about the level where
plain MC stops improving with more playouts?  Would be fun to see if we could
isolate the playout parts of those programs, and let them play pure MC. My
guess is that they would end up around this level.


Could it be that there are other limiting factors higher up? Perhaps Fatman
is hitting the next one around 12 doublings, and Mogo will follow at 14 or
15... We will see that in a few days, when the new Mogos join the study and
start producing results.

   - Heikki



-- 
Heikki Levanto   "In Murphy We Turst"     heikki (at) lsd (dot) dk

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