On Thu, Jan 24, 2008 at 03:19:52PM +0100, Magnus Persson wrote:
> 
> Nothing wrong with that, I do it myself all the time for my own tests.  
> But I have tricked myself at lot of time plotting curves like this.

Ok, when three people all tell me that I am jumping to conclusions, I am
willing to believe that, and wait for more data. It is coming in at a good
speed, even with the new strong (and slow) Mogos... But if my guess holds, I
was the first to notice it (or at least to point it out on this list)!

> Interestingly the column of opponent rating indicate that many of the  
> programs has played against harder or weaker opposition than expected,  
> meaning that a lot of games played might have had a very predictable  
> outcome. Thus the number of games played are probably to some extent  
> misleading for how accurate the results are.

Of course they have! The strongest program can only play weaker opponents,
and weakest one can only play stronger ones. The programs near the top are
still likely to meet weaker opponents (and vice versa). Still, that is one
possible explanation for the change I see in the curves.

-H


-- 
Heikki Levanto   "In Murphy We Turst"     heikki (at) lsd (dot) dk

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