Heikki, The numbers of games are about 200 and their ratings' standard deviations (right of Elo) are 70 to 100, right now. To get 95% of reliability, you have to double them. Don't you think it's too early to conclude any?
-Hideki Heikki Levanto: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: >Everyone is looking at the top end of the scalability study > http://cgos.boardspace.net/study/ > >But what happens in the low end? Both programs show linear progress to begin >with, then a corner, and more (almost?) linear development. > >Fatman's curve has a clear break at 3 doublings, when it suddenly starts to >improve much slower than before. This goes on until 12 doublings, after which >we get the mysterious decline. > >Mogo's curve is pretty well linear to 4 doublings, after that there is more >variation (I suppose random), but the overall scope is clearly not what it >was below 4. > > >It is possible that both programs have a subtle bug that starts to disturb >results around this point, but I find it quite unlikely. > >The breaks happe at 1350 - 1550 ELO points. Isn't that about the level where >plain MC stops improving with more playouts? Would be fun to see if we could >isolate the playout parts of those programs, and let them play pure MC. My >guess is that they would end up around this level. > > >Could it be that there are other limiting factors higher up? Perhaps Fatman >is hitting the next one around 12 doublings, and Mogo will follow at 14 or >15... We will see that in a few days, when the new Mogos join the study and >start producing results. > > - Heikki -- [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Kato) _______________________________________________ computer-go mailing list [email protected] http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
