On Feb 8, 2008 12:09 PM, David Silver <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I think it is time to share this idea with the world :-) > The idea is to estimate bias and variance to calculate the best > combination of UCT and RAVE values. > I have attached a pdf explaining the new formula.
Thanks! The original paper's formula for beta always felt wrong to me. I like this new one a lot better. Is it correct that the pdf assumes a uct bias of zero? Calculation of the MSE seems to assume this going into the last step but doesn't simplify life by doing it in the first reduction... Maybe it's just academic, but when I plug in bias = 0, I don't get the UCT formula for sims = n+m. Q comes out correct, but Q+ does not. I guess I'd sort of expect to see something along the lines of Q+ur = Qur + c*sqrt(log(???)/x) where x = B^2/m + (1-B)^2/n. When br = 0, x reduces to m+n. Maybe I'm just crazy and there's no good way to compute "???" inside my log.
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