On Wed, 2008-08-27 at 16:08 -0400, Robert Waite wrote: > * You really can't conclude much about any mogo strength improvement from just > * one game. > > It is true that you can't make a conclusion.. but you can draw some > information > from two games. I would think it is statistically unlikely that a person who > is > > 10kyu will beat a 3dan in an even game. So far... both games have pointed to > around 2dan. I would agree that you can't really know.. for example.. what if > both human players didn't play seriously.. then you wouldn't gain much at all. > > But then... even if there were 30 games.. the same thing could happen. > > I just find it interesting that Mogo played at approximately the same strength > with 1/5th the processing power. Not really a conclusion.. just an > observation.
But I don't think you can know that it played at approximately the same strength. To illustrate, suppose you and I play a game and you win. How much better are you than I am? You cannot even be sure you are better. The best you can do statistically is to say there is a very good chance I am not more than 400 or 500 ELO stronger than you and we can't statistically say hardly anything about what the upper bound on your strength is. You could be the same strength, or 10,000 ELO stronger and this result would not give any reason to support either case. Now if you say, "he felt like about a 2 Dan player to me" then I suppose you could try to factor that in, but in my opinion that is extremely unreliable. I would love to see an experiment where strong or weak players are asked to judge the strength of anonymous players - I'll bet they are off by some huge amount. - Don > > _______________________________________________ > computer-go mailing list > [email protected] > http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ _______________________________________________ computer-go mailing list [email protected] http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
